THE quest for succession has begun in earnest and understandably so. Unlike the near-smooth succession of Hakeemullah Mehsud as Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan supremo following the death of Baitullah Mehsud in a drone strike in August 2009, the situation now is less than certain.

There is no clear leader to lead the more than thirty militant groups operating in the country`s tribal borderland.

The death of a seemingly impregnable Hakeemullah in a drone strike at his year-old village in Dandidarpakhel shocked not just the Pakistani militant leadership but also the political and military leadership.

The big question was not just the timing of the attack, coming just when a threemember team fromIslamabad had opened initial contacts with an equal number of Mehsud`s emissaries at Governor`s Cottage, Miramshah, but also: what next? The attack was murky and sordid as far as the Pakistani leadership was concerned.

That the talks have been stalled for now is obvious.

What is not obvious is Hakeemullah`s successor and his take on the future of peace talks. The future of peace talks thus, hangs in the balance.SECURITY NIGHTMARE: What if the rein of TTP leadership goes into the hands of virulently radical and violent commanders? This is a security nightmare no one is prepared to think about.

So for the next couple of days, the security apparatus would be straining its ears to pick up any useful information about the likely successor of deceased TTP chief, Hakeemullah Mehsud, and if they can, and if prayers can help, see the ascension to the throne of a militant commander who can jump-start the peace process and bring violence to an end. Khan Said alias Sajna would be one such candidate the Pakistani leadership would be pinning its hopes on. The 38-year-old Shabikhel Mehsud from Zhawar, Dwatoi (South Waziristan) is a quiet, soft-spoken militant commander, well-versed in tribal traditions.

Several factors can help him gain the TTP leadership.

One, he is a native Mehsud and like Baitullah and Hakeemullah Mehsud, militant commanders from the region would like to retain the TTP leadership in their Mehsud hinterland.

He will also have the backing of powerful commanders from Bajaur, Orakzai, Khyber, Darra Adamkhel, Hafiz Gul Bahadar in North Waziristan, six major Punjabi Taliban groups, including the head of the Punjabi Taliban, Asmatullah Muawiya, the influential Haqqani network and part of Al Qaeda. In addition, he has the support of his 12 commanders in South Waziristan.

For the fighters, he is no novice to `Jihad.` He was 18 years of age when he went to Afghanistan to fight. He was in Afghanistan when commander Waliur Rehman, with whom he had had a close association, was killed in a drone strike in May this year. He is a schemer and a planner, the mastermind of the Bannu jailbreak in April last year.

For the government, he is less of an evil, despite having carried out attacks on secu-rity forces in Ladha and Kanigoram in South Waziristan. He listens to his Mehsud tribe and had thus favoured peace talks with the government, some government officials say, apparently also to outdo and neutralise Hakeemullah Mehsud.

But what if it does not happen and the mantle of TTP leadership passes on to more radical commanders, the likes of Swat TTP chief, Maulana Fazlullah. The 39-year-old militant commander fled to Afghanistan`s eastern Kunar province, and then to Nooristan, following military operation in his native Swat in 2009.

He has since then been carrying out raids on Pakistani security forces in the border region. His name even came up after the attempt on Malala Yousufzai`s life in October last year.

The latest was the killing of Maj Gen Sanaullah Niazi in a roadside bombing in Upper Dir in September. His group accepted responsibility for the attack.

Umar Khalid alias Abdul Wali, an experienced commander of the Tehreeki-Taliban Mohmand, could be another contender. He is known for attacks in Mohmand, neighbouring Charsadda and parts of Peshawar.

Within TTP`s Hakeemullah Mehsud group, there are a few commanders, also Mehsud by tribe from South Waziristan.

But tribesmen and government officialsdiscount them as lacking in capability and stature.

But the vital question remains unanswered: will the new leader, whoever he may be, will have the stature and the strength to hold the TTP together.

Baitullah`s death had caused differences within the TTP, spawning the Hakeemullah Mehsud and Waliur Rehman groups. However, the differences never caused armed hostilities between the two sides. In fact, the two commanders made an effort to allay speculations of any rift by appearing in a video sitting side by side, exchanging smiles.

Will the appointment of a new TTP leader cause further rifts within the rank and file is not known yet. Will the new leadership support peace dialogue with the government, taking along a horde of small militant groups along, or the issue could lead to the emergence of new, more radical, anti-state and anti-dialogue bloc.

What side would the North Waziristanbased foreign militant groups stand on may also decide the future course of action in the tribal region.

The TTP shura is reported to have concluded its consultation and a decision will come in due course. Finding a leader to match the stature and experience of Baitullah and Hakeemullah Mehsud would not be easy.