ISLAMABAD: The success of the Murree talks between the government of President Ashraf Ghani and the Afghan Taliban depends on the latter`s ability to prove that they are, in fact, the ones directing violence on the ground. But there`s a catch. As Mullah Akhtar Mansoor, the new Taliban leader, moves to assert his authority, violence will inevitably spike in the short run.

Speaking at `Changing South Asia: Opportunities and Challenges for Pakistan` a talk hosted by the Institute for Policy Reforms (IPR) on Tuesday Dr Moeed Yusuf, South Asia director at the United States Institute for Peace, made it clear that bringing violence levels down will be the key to reconciliation with Afghanistan.

But he also warned that if the infighting within the Taliban continued for too long and it came down to the Afghan Taliban versus themselves or versus the Afghan state, they would be drawing on all mili-tants who were familiar with and operated in this region, such as the Chechens, the Uzbeks, and even the Pakistani Taliban.

This would lead to far more violence on both sides of the border, he maintained.

This may be counterproductive for President Ghani, who will not be able to justify his policies at home if Taliban attacks continue in Afghanistan. But no matter what happens, both Pakistan and Afghanistan have no option but to seek reconciliation with the Taliban, Dr Yusuf said.

`President Ghani is Pakistan`s best option. It`s between him and civil war in Afghanistan,` he said, before clarifying that this may be an over simplification.

But, he added, that more violence there would only benefit the self-styled Islamic State (IS), which had already begun to flex its muscle in Afghanistan.

China`s ambitious plan Earlier, IPR Chairman and former commerce minister Humayun Akhtar Khan opened proceedings by summing up all the various events unfolding in the South Asian and Middle Eastern region. He also spoke about China`s revolutionary `One Belt One Road` plan, whereby Beijing aspired to regional economic connectivity by 2048.

Former diplomats Riaz H. Khokhar and Khalid Mahmood spoke about theregional importance and potential of China and Iran, respectively. Mr Khokhar, in particular, pointed to Chinese plans for regional integration, saying, `There is a great new game on.

He referred to the challenges China faced to the East, such as Japanese and US pressure in the Pacific and its disputes with ASEAN states regarding islands in the South China Sea, saying that this had forced the traditionally landlocked country to look inwards to Asia and Europe.

Pointing out that this was not an attempt at propping up a new bloc or alliance, Mr Kholchar said, `The whole idea is to integrate the region economically.

The Indian comparison Comparing Pakistan`s relations with India with Sino-India relations, he said that despite their territorial disputes and other grievances, both countries had adopted a very pragmatic approach, which was indicated by the volume of trade that went on between them.

He said that the Chinese had always subtly advised Pakistan to do the same. `Even though they understand our difficulties with India, they have always pushed us for closer trade and economic ties.

In his remarks regarding the nuances of Pakistan`s relationship with its neighbour to the East, senior journalist Ejaz Haider pointed out that relations with India werenot matters of foreign policy, but security policy.

`Normally, security policy is the tail.

But in Pakistan, the tail has been wagging the dog,` he said, tongue-in-cheek.

Mr Haider pointed out that all dialogue with India revolved around certain specific disputes.

`Our major problem with India is its drive to project power in the region, and that won`t go away even if all the disputes are resolved,` he said.

He also raised many eyebrows when he said that it was time for Pakistan to rethink its belief that it could counter India`s strength projection through military means. Mr Haider said that he was cognizant of the timing of his remarks and that under Narendra Modi, the hawks that wanted to continue to destabilise Pakistan had taken centre-stage.

However, he contended that India was far better off today than Pakistan was and could afford such confrontational overtures.

`India interests the world and can get away with lots. Pakistan worries the world, and thus has less space to make mistakes,` he said.

Mr Haider also made a couple of `out-ofthe-box` suggestions for normalising relations with India, which included talcing the `Kashmir-first` approach off the table, as well as abandoning the use of non-state actors againstother sovereign states.