ARECENT serninar at the University of Agriculture of Faisalabad, which houses a full-fledged department on agriculture clirnatology,ranked Pakistan eighth most vulnerable country on the globe changing climate impact.

It tried to estimate the cost of this vulnerability for the agriculture sector and national food security.

The seminar follows a warning by the State Bank of Pakistan (annual report 2013) that termed climate change a major threat to food security. Estimating that temperature might rise by another 0.6 to one Celsius by 2030, it warned that the change may take down wheat production by 1.5-2.5 per cent and rice by two to four per cent by 2020. Vegetables and livestock would also be at risk.

The report of the UAF academicians is, however, even scary. Dividing the entire 21st century into three periods (up to 2040, 2070 and the rest), it says that average day temperature would increase by 2.8 Celsius by 2040. Even more threatening is rise in night temperature by 2.2 Celsius during the same period.

Since the university is studying impact of climate change on wheat-rice production cycle, its researchers are more worried about the rise in night temperature because of role that cooler nights play in development of both crops. These are relatively cool 12 hours that bring both quantity (health and grain weight) and quality (aroma, length and water absorption and retention) to the rice crop.

In case of wheat, it is mild March especially during the nights that fills grain and determines productivity and size of national yield. This grain shriveling loss could go up to a 30 per centof yield and could be the difference between wheat exporting and food insecure Pakistan.

With weather element compromised, rice runs the risk of losing extra sheen that brings premium price for it in the international market andwheat yield drop, which could impact national food security.

It is not only rising temperature that worries these researchers, but accompanying changing pattern of rain as well. The monsoon period had progressively advanced in the last one decade. With the help of rain data, they insist that rain spell now starts as early as June, as happened last yeara new phenomenon termed as premonsoon, which merges in the traditional monsoon period of August and September. This early start takes it out of sync with traditional time span, and centuries` old agricultural realities.

It now rains when not required, andit does not when needed. This has emerged as a regular pattern in the last one decade. Extreme weather events like floods and droughts, extremely less or untimely torrential rains are cause of added problems for agriculture. For the last few years, floods and hill torrents have taken huge toll on standing crops. Last year, the country lost almost 300,000 acresof standing cotton to floods that dropped almost half a million bales.

Both these factors could force the country into new crop modeling if Pakistan has to sustain its agriculture and food security. What could worsen the impact of both these phenomena is ever-increasing wheat requirements. Pakistan needs almost 500,000 tonnes additional wheat every year to feed its population growing at the rate of two per cent.

The researchers suggest few steps to mitigate the impact and insist that until they are weaved into production policy. Enhancing productivity, which, in case of rice needs increased plant population by at least 50 per cent from current 80,000 to 120,000 per acre; advancing the date of nursery planting to reap benefit of early monsoon; and improving management practices for enhancing productivity by at least 15 per cent.

In case of wheat, developing a better yielding seed heat and drought tolerant is a must for the staple survival. Management practices and weed control could mitigate impact to a large extent.

Though impact on these two crops is a matter of current scrutiny, it does not, in any way, means that other crops would escape the problem. All crops would come under different kinds and intensities of pressure.They also need to be studied under the same temperature benchmarking.

Impact assessment on cotton is equally important for its vital role in the economy. All academic and research institutions along with metrological experts need to be inducted in the exercise so that climate forecasting and crop remodelling is done before it is too late.•