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Monsoon readiness

BY N A S E E R M E M O N 2025-07-01
NIGHTMARISH memories of the monsoons make people anxious in this region.

Pakistan experienced hydro-climatic devastation in 2010 and 2022. Due to the enormity of the disaster, complete recovery will take many more years. A large number of the 2022 flood victims have not yet been fully rehabilitated.

In the second week of June, the Met Department issued a warning for flash drought, the second one after March. In April, Pakistan witnessed a crippling drought when its two large reservoirs plummeted to dead level, leaving the Kharif crops parched in Sindh. We woke up to a sizzling sun in June, which triggered an intense heatwave across the country.

Ensconced in air-conditioned rooms and cars, many cannot even imagine how life becomes paralysed in towns and villages when the mercury soars to unbearable levels. Pre-monsoon, the trajectory of weather events has been distressing.

Meanwhile, routine events are likely in the fast-approaching monsoons, according to regional estimates. The Hindu KushHimalaya (HKH) region is very vulnerable to the monsoon season, which is a major source of precipitation in the region.

Spiralling temperatures trigger intense rainfall and snowmelt, which swell rivers and streams that turn into deluges. In the process, while they see their water stock recharged, over two billion people are also exposed to disasters.

The HKH monsoon in 2025 is projected to bring above-normal precipitation in most parts of South Asia. The outlook estimates are collated from the APEC1 Climate Centre, the Copernicus Climate Service, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, and the 31st Session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum.

According to the estimates, `Below-average northern hemisphere snow cover at its fourth lowest in January 2025 and sixth lowest in March 2025 in the last 59 years is likely to have an inverse effect on summer monsoon rainfall.

Three of the four agencies mentioned, predict above-normal temperature and precipitation in the country, which echoes the Met Department`s forecasts. The department predicts normal to slightly above-normal precipitation across the country. However, the diversity of Pakistan`s landscape leads to a geographically uneven distribution of precipitation.

Sindh, located at the tail end of the Indus, bears the brunt of both types of extreme weather impacts drought and flood.

With its flat topography, even normal rainfall causes localised flooding. Aggravated by a poorly managed infrastructure and perennially malfunctioning drainage net-work, any unusual storm can unleash catastr ophic flooding.

Apart from the Indus flooding, Sindh is also exposed to gushing flash floods from the hills of the Kirthar and Koh-i-Suleman ranges on its western boundary with Balochistan. These two hilly regions aggravated the floods of 2010 and 2022. In 2010, irrigation officials were preparing for an estimated flow of up to 700,000 cusecs likely to arrive at Sukkur Barrage.

However, heavy discharges in the Suleman range brought a torrential deluge downstream to D.G. Khan, Rajanpur and Rahim Yar Khan. An unanticipated flow of 1.2m cusecs was generated that breached embankments at the Jampur and Mithankot bunds. Such flooding was abnormaloccurring once in 1,000 years! As they had for June 2010, this year, too, the Met Department has predicted `normal or slightly more than normal rainfall`.

However, we must keep in mind that in 2010, somersaulting weather conditions generated flash floods that turned the Indus waters into a super flood. Eventually,the Tori bund was breached near Kashmore, wreaking havoc in the western districts of Sindh.

Subsequently, another major breach flooded Sujawal and other southern areas.

In 2022, a massive flash flood enteredSindh from Balochistan through the hill torrents of the Kirthar range. The adjoining districts of Balochistan received unusually heavy rains during July and August, which generated a sheet of water spread over hundreds of kilometres. The situation was exacerbated by record-breaking downpour in Sindh during the third week of August. The monsoon outlook of 2022 warned of an ominous weather pattern which received no attention.

A major challenge to disaster management is weak institutional arrangements at the district level. The District Disaster Management Authorities are part of a humanitarian architecture but they exist without any experienced human resource or dedicated resources. It is already too late as June has passed without any significant preparedness measures. Ideally, every district should have developed a monsoon contingency plan. Soon a flurry of customary meetings and official visits will start. Disaster preparedness ought to be a year-round exercise.

The wnter is a civil society professional.

nmemon2004@yahoo.com