KARACHI: Cement sales in the first four months of 2022-23 are expected to have gone down by 21-25 per cent on a year-on-year basis.

Based on data obtained from the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association, Topline Securities analyst Sunny Kumar said the lower offtake of local cement (-22pc) in the period under review is on the back of higher-than-expected rains across the country, rising construction costs and the inflationary impact that`s restricting demand growth.

As per the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, cement retail prices in October averaged at Rs1,024 per bag in the North region after a decline of Rs24 per bag from the preceding month.

`With higher interest rates, the expected slowdownin economic growth and contained PSDP (Public Sector Development Programme), we expect cement despatches to fall 12pc in 2022-23,` he said.

Cement sales in October are likely to remain flat on a month-on-month basis at 4.1-4.3 million tonnes with local despatches expected to increase 0-4pc from September to hit 3.8-4m tonnes. The average daily sales in the North and South regions are hovering at 99,000-103,000 tonnes and 23,000-24,000 tonnes, respectively.

Sales in October are expected to decline 17-21pc on an annual basis. Local despatches are lil(ely to be down 14-18pc year-on-year due to a slowdown in the overall economic activity and higher construction costs, he said.

However, exports in October are expected to go down 22-26pc month-on-month and 39-43pc year-onyear. `The attrition in exports is on the back of a global economic slowdown,` he added.