SINCE April 2025, when India unilaterally suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), most scholarship has treated it as a political decision by the BJP-led NDA government. While it is true that the BJP has been developing a narrative that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was `rectifying` the `mistakes` of the Nehruvian era, the decisions and developments during the past 18 months suggest that New Delhi is developing a long-term strategy to strangle Pakistan economically.

India`s primary target in this strategic campaign is the Chenab river, which it is systematically converting into a long-term instrument of leverage to dictate Pakistan`s foreign policy, weaken its stance on Kashmir, and dominate bilateral relations. In the 18 months since it decided to keep the IWT in abeyance, India has aggressively leveraged this treaty vacuum to build a massive network of storage, regulation, and diversion infrastructure on the Chenab.

New and accelerated hydroelectric power projects, primarily concentrated in the Chenab basin, have ballooned from a baseline capacity of 3,263 MW to 7,620.5 MW, supported by a massive financial outlay of approximately Indian rupees 414.04 billion.

No single dam or diversion canal can permanently dry up a river. However, a highly synchronised, connected network of mega structures, coupled with diversion canals, can fundamentally determine who controls the timing and volume of river flow. India is trying to apply a twopronged strategy, ie, increase storage capacity and enhance the ability to divert the Chenab`s water. India`s strategic roadmap involves five megaprojects alongside extensive local diversions. This includes Sawalkot (1,856 MW), Kirthai I & II (1,320 MW), Pakal Dul (1,000 MW), Ratle (850 MW), and Bursar Storage (800 MW).

India`s infrastructure push began in May 2025, with the announcement of the tender for the Uri-II project (240 MW), followed quickly in June 2025 by the tender announcement for the Dulhasti-II project (260 MW). Activity accelerated in July 2025 with two major announcements first, a tender for the removal of deposited sediments from the Salal Dam Reservoir, and second, the Sawalkot project (1,856 MW) tender under international competitive bidding. In March 2026, civil contracts were officially awarded for both the Uri-I stage II and Dulhastistage-II projects, alongside the official tender announcement for the highly controversial Chenab-Beas Link Tunnel Project (Link-3).

These aforementioned projects command a combined potential diversion and storage capacity of roughly 7.287 MAF.

The Chenab-Beas Link Project is particularly consequential. With a reported budget of Indian rupees 23.52bn, it proposes to transfer water from the Chandra river, a major Chenab tributary, through an 8.7-kilometre tunnel into the Beas basin and onward through a 113km canalnetwork to eastern Indian states. The proposed diversion of 1.9 MAF annually from the Chenab basin raises serious questions about compliance with Article III of the IWT.

The threat of manipulation, or the Chenab`s vulnerabilities, poses a direct risk to Pakistan`s economic survival, social stability, and national security. The Chenab directly irrigates agricultural lands across more than 11 districts of central Punjab, the country`s undisputed food basket. These districts form the densest core of the famous rice-wheat cropping zone. This 11-district area accounts for about 22 to 25 per cent of Pakistan`s national food grain output. If India controls water flows during October to December or May to July, it may affect seasonal yields in this zone. In such a scenario, it could cause a direct blow of $9bn to $11bn to Pakistan`s economy.

The broader impact would ripple through the national economy in several ways. Pakistan would be forced to spend billions of scarce foreign exchange reserves to import basic food commodities. Instead of generating $3.3bn to $4bn from booming rice exports, the country would face a multibillion-dollar trade deficit just trying to secure alternative grain imports. Second,any sustained restriction on, or unpredictable disruption to, these water flows would threaten the livelihoods of millions of farming households, while endangering crops and compromising national food security.

Therefore, Islamabad must view India`s decision to place the IWT in abeyance as another dimension of New Delhi`s long-standing and coordinated policy of economic strangulation of Pakistan. For years, New Delhi has strategically used international platforms and institutional levers to weaken Pakistan`s economic foundations. New Delhi has been consistently trying to restrict Islamabad`s access to global capital and limit its trade capacity. A primary example is India`s aggressive lobbying within the Financial Action Task Force, where it has consistently tried to politicise technical compliance and block Pakistan`s removal from the grey list to discourage foreign direct investment and cripple its banking sector. Beyond regulatory warfare, India has systematically disrupted regional trade platforms, such as Saarc, effectively stalling economic integration across South Asia to keep Pakistan regionally isolated.

Faced with this asymmetric threat, Islamabad`s response has been largely concentrated on the external front. Pakistan`s state apparatus has consistently pursued international legal and diplomatic channels. However, a dangerous policy gap exists on the domestic front. Ground-level preparedness is profoundly lacking. The agrarian communities, provincial irrigation departments, and economic sectors that will bear the immediate impact of India`s upstream infrastructure remain highly vulnerable. Pakistan lacks the modern water-storage infrastructure, optimised canal lining, cropswitching strategies, and real-time early warning systems needed to survive sudden changes in river flows.

Hence, Islamabad should complement its legal and diplomatic efforts with urgent domestic reforms. Pakistan must declare a national water emergency, educate vulnerable communities in 11 districts of central Punjab that depend on the Chenab, expedite dam construction, and modernise irrigation. Without urgent preparedness, Islamabad will risk surrendering its agricultural security to Delhi`s water blackmail. • The writer is a strategic analyst of intemational secunty. The views expressed are his own.