We`re back again to the time when the individual disciplines of the film business in the United States dutifully reward their best on artistic merit, supposedly free from marketing influences and peer pressures.

This is the 20th year of Oscar predictions in Icon. As witness to the changing trends and evolving mindsets of the Hollywood industry, we can say, without reservation, that this is the most uncertain and for the film industry at large, the most confusing year of the Oscars game.

For some voters of the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences (the 10,500-strong members of the `Academy` that gives out the Oscars), the ballot-casting decisions might have been marginally easier this year, when overall fewer titles are in competition. (Back in 2017, the year of Moonlight, Arrival, Fences and La La Land, 47 titles duked it out across categories; in 2025 the number has slipped to 35 films.) Where once the contest was seemingly scattered again, taking into account 2017, only La La Land had stunned the industry with 13 nominations(Arrival and Moonlight had eight, some others ranged between two to four) this year the fight is primarily between the top 10 films in the best picture categories, which have also dominated every category.

In numbers: Anora has six nominations, The Brutalist and Wicked 10 each, A Complete Unknown and Conclave eight each, Dune: Part Two and The Substance five each; I`m Still Here three and Nickel Boys two. Emilia Perez, like La La Land, has 13 bewildering nominations.

However, unlike the star film of 2017, Emilia Perez, which started out the award season as the hot favourite, has been done in by damaging controversies and the anger of the trans, Latin and women`s lib movements for gross, hamfisted misrepresentation. Zoe Saldana will still win the Best Supporting Actress award (because she is much loved by the industry), and possibly Best Song will go to El Mal, despite it not being our favourite by a wide margin.

However, Emilia Perez is not the only title with controversies. Its across-the-board inclusion is a manifestation of Hollywood`s current mindset of democratic inclusion. Karla Sofía Gascón is the first trans-person to be nominated in the Best Actress bracket; the performance was hardly worth noting, let alone celebrating, like the film itself.

Similar to Gascón, I`m Still Here actress Fernanda Torres, who plays Eunice Paiva, the Brazilian lawyer and activist who challenged the Brazilian military dictatorship, is also a Best Actress nominee. The Walter Salles film (he directed Motorcycle Diaries) one of two films we have yet to see from the entire line-up had once been a front-runner.

Titles not in the Best Picture race have also wiggled into subsequent categories: the Latvian animated film Flovis, nominated under Best Animation, is also up for Best International Film; Nosferatu, a contender in cinematography, production design, make-up and costume (as predicted in the Icon review) may win one or two awards, if it is lucky that is.

Some, like Demi Moore (Actress, The Substance), Kieran Culkin (Supporting Actor, A Real Pain), The Wild Robot (Animated Feature), Conclave (Adapted Screenplay), are all but locked as winners.

On a related thought: if No Other Land, a documentary about Israel`s land-grabbing in Palestine wins, it would be nothing short of miraculous, given Hollywood`s strong pro-Israel stance. According to pundits, it is the candidate to beat, irrespective of the fact that it is the best title in the line-up, and may also help dull the image of a pro-Zionist Hollywood.

If No Other Land is shunned, chances are that Porcelain War, about the resistance in Ukraine, may end up winning the award . . . while losing the favour of the world`s audience.

Sing Sing, September 5, A Different Man, Gladiator II, Alien: Romulus, Better Man, The Apprentice, The Six Triple Eight, may just have to take pride in their nomination-only status along with Best Picture competitors Nickel Boys and I`m Still Here.

So, technically, one only has to watch the nominees of the Best Pictures, Animation, International Film, Documentary and two or three other important films to guess the feel of the Oscars. But the crazy-confused predicament of the voters has more to do with the results of the Baftas and the individual guild awards.

The Baftas, the British equivalent to the Oscars, almost have the same categories and nominees. For the last decade, it has become a spoiler for Oscar night, since the two academies share the same voters and guild members to a great extent. This year, though, there appears to be a stupefying distance between the guilds, the Baftas and the Academy.

The Baftas, along with the Eddies, SAG, DGA, PGA (the editors`, actors`, directors` and producers` guilds, respectively), single out who wins in their respective categories at the Oscars.

Excluding SAG, the four also shortlist titles that may bag the Best Picture trophy.

The Baftas, amazingly, have thrown a wild curveball this year, dividing eight awards between Conclave (Picture, Editing, Adapted Screenplay, British Film), a thriller set during the conclave that has to elect the next pope (a great picture, by the way), and The Brutalist (Director, Actor, Cinematography, Score), a biography of renowned architect László Tóth, a Hungarian-Jewish Holocaust survivor who emigrated to the United States.

The Brutalist had been a former front-runner in the Oscar race and, if the results of the Baftas repeat tomorrow, it may yet bag Best Actor for Adrian Brody, who last won the Best Actor award in the same category for The Pianist, back in 2002.

Since nearly all other awards happen before Oscar voting ends, they end up collectively conditioning the subconscious of lingering voters. It should be noted that not all voters see every film (like us); most rely on a contenders` present status in the industry. That is why, perhaps, Timothee Chalamet won Best Actor for A Complete Unknown at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG).

For the most part, SAG, DGA and PGA don`t see eye to eye with the Baftas this year, with the American guilds showing their preference for The Substance, A Complete Unknown and Anora with Anora replacing Emilia Perez as the champion to beat in America.

With the Eddies, statistically a major indicator for Best Picture winner, pushing its ceremony to the very end of the award season in mid-March a place usually reserved for the Academy Awards one can be sure that this rescheduling will also confuse last-minute Oscar voters.

The Writers Guild, the American Society of Cinematographers, Motion Pictures Sound Editors, the Cinema Audio Society, the Costume Designers Guild Awards, the Art Directors Guild and Make-up And Hair Styling awards (WGA, ASC, MPSE, CAS, CDGA, ADG, MUHAS, respectively) are no help this year, since most Oscar nominees have not qualified for the corresponding guild awards because of technicalities, merit or deadlines.

The lack of familiar titles in these awards will likely result in another type of subconscious decision-making: owing to fewer recurrences of titles between the guild and academy ballots, voters may pick familiar titles. The intense marketing campaigns of those few Oscar-shortlisted favourites will also play a part here.

On the other hand, the films that do win the guild awards, but are not nominated by the Oscars academy, will end-up baffling voters; the documentaries and the technical categories are the ones to look out for in this regard.

Speaking from a lot of film watching/ reviewing experience, the titles and their contenders aren`t up to the usual Academy Awards standard. Some films are good-enough, though that doesn`t make them excellent or award worthy.

Take Anora as an example: if it wins Picture and Director, it is not because it is the best directed and made film in the line-up; it simply means that it is slightly better than its fellow nominees.

Like the dwindling number of titles in competition, our own personal score is at an all-time low this year (we have a meticulous system of rating in place).

From a score of 5, the average rating was 3.74 in 2017; today, it is 3.19. In layman terms: the narrative quality of films has slipped from 4-stars to 3-stars.

Our predictions, like every year, will chart out who we think `will win` the award, and who we believe `should win` on quality, merit or where we think the industry will tilt if commonsense prevails. Dark-horse candidates are noted in Upsets.

Keep an eye out for some interesting reveals when the envelopes open though.

We`ve already pointed out that Adrian Brody has the most chances of winning the leading Actor trophy (it can be interpreted as a Brendan Fraser-like comeback story), but given the love Chalamet is getting not to mention the SAG win he may well be the dark horse here.

From our perspective though, Ralph Fiennes and Stan Sebastian gave better performances. Both, however, carry misunderstandings and bias. People often make the careless mistake that Fiennes has won an Oscar for The English Patient, Schindler`s List or The Constant Gardener (he wasn`t even nominated for the last one). Sebastian`s performance is indeed award-worthy, because he plays Donald Trump as a human being who evolves into his present self through decades; it would have been too easy and imprudent to play the current American president (who most of Hollywood doesn`t agree with) as a caricature.

In the case of Emilia Perez, given the voters` interest in distancing themselves from the film, one may see it losing the International Film trophy. If this turns out to be the case, I`m Still Here may win its only award of the night.

In the cinematography category, one sees that all three major contenders Maria, The Brutalist and Nosferatu have been shot on 35mm and VistaVision film. Maria has won the American Cinematographer Guild Awards, and is clearly our favourite and preferred candidate. However, the industry and the pundits are somehow leaning heavily towards Dune: Part Two as a potential winner. The first Dune, although well shot, has won its cinematographer GregFraser an Oscar in 2022. We believe the industry will likely get this wrong.

The same logic applies to Dune: Part Two`s entry in the VFX category; it had won the award in 2022. Betterman is a better candidate, because Robbie Williams` monkey avatar he plays a monkey in his own autobiography is not just a visual effect, but a thoroughly emotional character; the film, alas, isn`t on most voters` radars.

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, or any previous entry in there booted Planet of the Apes movies, has never won the Oscars for visual effects. We personally found the VFX good enough but not excellent, but its win in the Visual Effects Society (VES) awards where historically, it has always won in Outstanding VFX in a Photoreal Feature category may finally get the series the Oscar it deserves. But, who knows, right?!? In any case, expect a lot of surprises tomorrow at the 97th Academy Awards.

It could be a doozy or a dud. At least with Conan O`Brian hosting, the broadcast will hopefully be funny.

PICTURE Will Win: Anora Should Win: Conclave or Anora Upset: The Brutalist DIRECTOR Will Win/Should Win: Sean Baker, Anora Upset: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist ACTOR Will Win: Adrian Brody, The Brutalist Should Win: Ralph Fiennes, Conclave or Stan Sebastian, The Apprentice Upset: Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown ACTRESS Will Win/Should Win: Demi Moore, The Substance Upset: Mikey Madison, Anora SUPPORTING ACTOR Will Win/Should Win: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain SUPPORTING ACTRESS Will Win: Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez Should Win: Felicity Jones, The Brutalist ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Will Win/Should Win: Anora Upset:A Real Pain ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Will Win/Should Win: Conclave CINEMATOGRAPHY Will Win: The Brutalist Should Win: Nosferatu or Maria Upset: Dune: Part Two EDITING Will Win/Should Win: Conclave Upset: Anora PRODUCTION DESIGN Will Win: Wicked Should Win: Nosferatu COSTUME DESIGN Will Win/Should Win: Wicked Upset: Nosferatu MAKE-UP AND HAIRSTYLING Will Win/Should Win: The Substance Upset: Wicked VISUAL EFFECTS Will Win: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes Should Win: Betterman Upset: Dune: Part Two SOUND Will Win:Dune: Part Two or Wicked Should Win: Dune: Part Two Upset: A Complete Unknown ORIGINAL SCORE Will Win/Should Win: The Brutalist Upset: Conclave ORIGINAL SONG Will Win: `El Mal`, Emilia Perez Should Win: `Mi Camino`, Emilia Perez or `Like a Bird, Sing Sing` Upset: `The Journey`, The Six Triple Eight ANIMATED FEATURE FILM Will Win/Should Win: The Wild Robot Upset: Flow INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM Will Win: Emilia Perez Should Win: Flow Upset: I`m Still Here DOCUMENTARY FEATURE Will Win/Should Win: No Other Land Upset: Porcelain War