DHESIAN is one of the most populous villages of Jaranwala. Some 35km from Faisalabad, the area has always stood by Nawaz Sharif, voting en bloc for his candidates in every election in the past.

In return, its inhabitants have been adequately rewarded by successive PML-N governments with paved streets, power, gas and the internet.

However, there are signs for some time that the village is shifting its loyalties ahead of the upcoming elections.

It might still vote overwhelmingly for the N-League on February 8, but it wouldn`t be surprising to see their arch-rivals, the PTI, take away a substantialchunk ofthe polledballots.

The region has been the epitome of Nawaz`s unchallenged reign over central Punjab until now, owing to the party`s biradari-based and traderfinanced local networks, held togetherby development schemes under multiple rules in the province.

Several factors a rapid demographicchange,a steepincreasein the cost of living under Shehbaz Sharif, PTI`s anti-establishment narrative, and social media have spurred Imran Khan`s popularity since his government`s removal in April 2022. These factors are also influencing PML-N`s standing in Dhesian. Even then, the political dynamics of this Jaranwala constituency can not be ignored.

`Turncoats not welcome` For starters, `N` voters are not happy that the party leadership has preferred a quintessential turncoat, Nawab Sher Waseer, who was one of the first PTI legislators to desert his party to support the no-confidence motion against Imran Khan in 2022, over party loyalist Talal Chaudhry for the NA constituency from Jaranwala.

The political journey of the Nawab can be traced back to the Jamaat-i-Islami, the PPP, PML-Q and the PTI.

Then there is Rai Haider Ali Khan,whose family had remained loyal to the PML-N for decades; he too quit the former ruling party in February to join the PTI.

Imran Khan`s growing popularity wasn`t the only factor that led Rai Haider to desert his former political party: the Sharifs` decision to embrace Nawab Waseer meant that his space in Jaranwala`s electoral polities would be limited. And what could be a better option than a PTI ticket against a traditionaladversary? With an established standing in the constituency from where he was twice elected to the Punjab Assembly in 2013 and 2018, he is better placed than any other candidate to put a dent in the vote bank of the PML-N. And he has beensuccessfulinthatendeavoureven before starting his election campaign.

`People across the province are angry [over the vindictive actions against Imran Khan and his party]; the response is overwhelming; we don`t even need to campaign,` Rai Haider told Dawn in Dhesian during his visit to the village last week, daysafter the passing of his father Rai Salahuddin Khan.

`Unfading popularity` `The objective of Imran Khan`s rivals is to comprehensively defeat his PTI in the polls with the help of the establishment. However, they`re underestimating his popularity. They cannot win just by dismissing his unfading popularity.

Most people in Jaranwala believe that Rai Haider will win the constituency hands down. Those who prefer to tamper their optimism with a tinge of doubt will tell you that the Jaranwala contest is going to be a very competitive one; however, even they believe the PTI ticket holders will prevail.

`The contest for Jaranwala`s one NA seat (NA-96), and two Punjab Assembly (PP-100 and PP-101) constituencies will be competitive. The battle could have been a bit difficult for the PTI if Talal were contesting on the PML-N ticket, says a local journalist in a comment on Nawab Waseer`s nomination.

The PML-N, meanwhile is faced with a potential revolt from `aspiring candidates` over ticket distribution in many places across central Punjab. As a result, they are in the running as independent contestants, or lending theirsupporttothe PTI.

On one of the provincial seats, the Sharifs have fielded Talal`s 77-year-old father, Chaudhry Ashraf, against his brother Chaudhry Akram, an old parliamentarian who claims to have brought his nephew into electoral politics, to ensure that Talal Chaudhry actively participatesin the election effort for Nawab Waseer`s win.

Nothing is inevitable The Sharif family and its loyalists may be expecting an easy victory in their centralPunjab bastion, but there is nothing `inevitable` about their chances of reclaiming the dominant position in the region.

The majority of the electoralracesin thefour central Punjab divisions Gujranwala, Faisalabad, Lahore and Sahiwal would be highly competitive, even with Imran Khan still in jail, his party without an electoral symbol and most candidates underground.

`The 2024 polls would not be a walk in the park for Nawaz whose politics has suffered a remarkable decline over the recent years... Most central Punjab electoral races are going to be very competitive despite all oddsstacked against the PTI,` a Faisalabad-based journalist argues.

`PML-N`s route in the provincial and national by-elections in 2022 in its stronghold of central Punjab, is a major sign of Imran Khan`s popularity after his ouster from power.

`G.T. Road Party` Due to its popularity across central Punjab, the PML-N also earned the label of `G.T.

Road Party`. After it was decimated by PML-Q, formed by military dictator Pervez Musharraf, in 2002, the N-League bounced back in 2008, winning 41 out of 80 NA seatsin these districts.

This was despite the fact that the Sharif family had just returned from exile and the murder of Benazir Bhutto had sparked a countrywide wave of sympathy for the PPP. The remaining seats were shared by the PPP, PML-Q, independent candidates, and other smaller parties.

Jaranwala is not the only place in the 17 central districts of Punjab where the N-League suffered a big dent in the last elections.

In Punjab`s central districts, the party`s tally dropped from 72 out of the 79 contested National Assembly seats in 2013 to 45 out of 71 seats in 2018. In other words, its share of NA seats declined from above 91pc to 63pc in five years.

PTI fields `rookies` against `lethal force` A similar dilemma is being faced by PTI. Will it succeed in retaining 22 nationalseats it had won in 2018, let alone build up on this tally next month? The party roster now mostly features rookies, many lacking financial muscle and influence in their constituencies. In addition, a number of PTI ticket holders are contesting from jail and some are outside the country.

In certain places,the delayed finalisation of tickets and multiple changes to candidate names are also creating as much confusion for the PTI`s campaign as different symbols for each candidate have caused.

`We are a party interrupted with lethal force, says a PTI provincial leader from Jhang. `We have everything going against us.Nawaz`s return amid a growing public perception that the country`s security establishment and courts are clearing the field for PML-N might also sway fringe voters.

Still, PTI has some strong factors favouring its ticket holders: popular anti-establishment and `anti-America` narrative, young voters in both urban and rural areas, poor economic management under Shehbaz, massive public sympathy for their incarcerated leader, and so on.

`Interestingly, Bilawal Bhutto is also perpetuating our narrative against PML-N, reminding the voters of how Nawaz is trying to return to power with the help of the establishment. It will benefit us. He is doing that to woo our voters but that is not going to happen.Ifour supporters are not stopped from voting, the PTI will give a major surprise to the PML-N.

`Leaving nothing to chance` In spite of a `clear field`, PML-N ticket holders aren`t leaving their campaigns to chance. Some are working hard to connect with the voters despite being `the only party in the arena`.

`Politics is all about narratives and public perception and the PTI narrative of sympathy and the PDM government`s poor economic legacy is swaying voters. Our past performance (narrative of development) is not resonating with the public. We are forced to contestthis election like local body polls to fight the popular wave,` concedes Talal Chaudhry.

Yet, he defends the party`s decision to remove the PTI government. `If we hadn`t voted Imran out, we would have been finished as a [political] party. That was a difficult choice to make. At least we are in the election race and talking to you freely, notes the PML-N leader, who has been promised a Senate seat and a ministry in the `next PML-N set-up`.

While PTI may be down, it is not out. Despite difficulties, PTI remains a strong political contender for votes across Central Punjab. But we do not know if it can convert its leader`s popularity into votes on the polling day.

If it does, PML-N might find it hard to regain its dominancein centralPunjab.