AFTER conducting three rounds of talks, which began on April 12, a fourth round between the US and Iran slated for today (May 3) in Rome has been postponed, presumably by Tehran because of the fresh US sanctions on its oil exports. Separately, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth warned Iran that it would face consequences for supporting the Houthis, who have attacked ships in the Red Sea in solidarity with the Palestinians. It is becoming clear that Iran would be reluctant to continue talks if the US side continues to put pressure on Iran and hurl threats of further punitive action something the Iranian clergy is loath to accept.

The recent diplomatic engagements between Iran and the US sparked cautious optimism about breaking the decades-long stalemate that has characterised their relationship since the 1979 Iranian Revolution. Both sides spoke positively about the conduct of negotiations, even though there were speculations about the outcome of the talks until tangible progress was achieved. President Donald Trump`s threat of bombing Iran cast a long shadow over the process, underlining the high stakes involved.

How soon the two countries resume talks is a matter of speculation. Suspicions between them run deep, and the talks are expected to encounter hurdles once discussions move from broad diplomatic niceties to the finer, more contentious details. Right now, Iran`s strategic vulnerability due to setbacks in Syria, Lebanon and Gaza has emboldened Israel, and the US is likely to prioritise Israel`s security interests.

On the military front, opinions are divided over Iran`s capabilities. The recent exchange of missiles between Iran and Israel exposed weaknesses in Iran`s missile defence systems, which failed to neutralise Israeli strikes effectively.

Furthermore, maintaining an extensive network of proxies across the Middle East has proven financially and strategically burdensome for Iran.

In addition to ongoing military operations in Gaza, Israel has continued to assert control over Syrian territory in the Golan Heights. In Iraq, despite a Shia-majority population, a resurgence of Arab nationalism encouraged by SaudiArabia and the UAE has gradually eroded Iranian influence. Adding to Iran`s regional challenges, Saudi Arabia is reportedly contemplating repaying Syria`s $15 million debt to the World Bank, potentially positioning itself as a benefactor in Syria`s reconstruction efforts. This move may further isolate Iran diplomatically and economically.

The Trump administration`s `maximum pressure` strategy towards Iran appears to be a calculated effort to achieve several objectives.

Foremost among these is the complete denuclearisation of Iran, which, if successful, would consolidate Israel`s military superiority and establish its regional hegemony. For the US, the presence of enriched uranium in Iran represents a criticalsecurity concern.

However, achieving denuclearisation is no simple feat. A major sticking point is whether Iran agrees to transfer its stockpile of highly enriched uranium to a third country or insists on retaining it under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The resolution of this issue will be pivotal to the success or failure of the ongoing talks. A continued impasse will likely expose Iran to increasing pressure from not only the US but also its European allies, who have grown wary of Tehran`s regional behaviour and nuclear posture.

Another looming threat is the possibility of regime change, a recurring theme in the American foreign policy discourse regarding Iran. Meanwhile, exiled opposition figures such as Reza Pahlavi have been reported to be in close contact with US and Israeli officials, raising concerns within the Iranian establishment about foreignbacked attempts to destabilise the regime.

To sustain pressure, the Trump administration may consider tightening sanctions further, potentially targeting Iranian oil exports. Such a move, however, risks escalating tensions and may provoke a fierce Iranian response. Depending on how Iran`s leadership, particularly the clerical establishment, chooses to react, several retaliatory measures could be on the table: • Declaration as a nuclear weapons state: Iran could publicly announce its acquisition of nuclear weapons. However, US intelligence assessmentsremain divided on whether Iran has crossed that threshold. Moreover, Iran`s nuclear programme has historically faced serious obstacles including the assassination of top scientists and internal sabotage making this path both risky and uncertain.

• Closure of the Strait of Hormuz: Iran can disrupt global oil shipments by closing this strategic chokepoint. While recent rapprochement with the Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, may act as a restraining factor, deep-seated mistrust persists in the region.

• Leverage of strategic partnerships: Iran`s growing ties with Russia and China have added a new dimension to the geopolitical equation.

These relationships may serve as a deterrent against any unilateral military action by the US, forcing Washington to consider broader internationalrepercussionsbefore acting.

The escalating tensions between the US and Iran carry profound implications for Pakistan, which must tread carefully to protect its national interests. Historically, Pakistan has maintained a complex relationship with the US, which is marked by cooperation but also episodes of betrayal. Though designated a major non-Nato ally, Pakistan has often found itself sidelined in favour of American strategic interests in India, which have proven detrimental to Islamabad`s regional objectives.

In contrast, Iran is not only a neighbouring country but also shares deep cultural and religious ties with Pakistan. While differences in perception have existed, the two have no fundamental territorial or political dispute. Therefore, Pakistan must adopt a nuanced, region-first approach if the Iran-US stand-off intensifies. A balanced foreign policy focused on regional stability and cooperation is essential for Pakistan to navigate the complex and potentially explosive geopolitical landscape that lies ahead. • The writer is a former special representative of Pakistan for Afghanistan. He served as Paldstan`s ambassador to Iran and the UAE Currently, he is the Senior Research Fellow at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute.

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