INDIA`S global profile seems to have fallen on hard times lately. This may be a transient phase but it would be interesting to examine the reasons behind India`s troubles.

The `neat and orderly` world crafted by former president Joe Biden and (late) Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe through their Indo-Pacific strategy had pitchforked India to dizzying geopolitical heights. That world has been sidelined if not upended by President Donald Trump, at least for now, with his assault on the `rules-based` international order of which the Indo-Pacific strategy was a protégé.

Billed by Biden as a struggle between `democracies and autocracies`, and showcased by sham initiatives like his `Democracy Summit`, the `rules-based order` has been shred to pieces by the horrific war in Gaza, supported by the US and Europe. Israeli and American actions in the Middle East have established that aggression has little cost, and that no norm in international relations is sacrosanct anymore. Might is right is the new normal.

The old world order is not the only casualty. Middle Eastand India-focused Western initiatives like I2U2 and the Europe Middle East India Economic Corridor also may have suffered collateral damage on account of, on one hand, the US Israeli wars in the Middle East, and, on the other, the Ukraine war. Europe is being squeezed between the onslaught of Trump`s tariffs and America First policy and Vladimir Putin`s overweening ambitions. The Arab monarchies must have their own anxieties vis-à-vis Israel. All this will force India to confront an unfamiliar landscape and uncharted waters.

The link that Biden was trying to create between Europe`s security and the IndoPacific strategy is also not being actively pursued because of America`s ambivalent attitude towards Nato, Europe`s preoccupation with the Ukraine war, and the overall divisions within the West caused by Trump`s disruptive policies. This further lowers India`s clout.

Trump is leveraging tariffs to achieve both economic and strategic objectives, choosing economic interests over geopolitics in case of a conflict between the two.

This strategy has helped China to exercise the considerable influence it has over the US economy that could possibly expose the limitations of America`s Indo-Pacific strategy in future. India realises what may be coming as is evident from its recent outreaches to Beijing. Clearly, the global reordering is generating much uncertainty and pressures as well as opportunities.

There was a time when India was considered so critical by the West to their globalstrategies that they would let it have its socalled strategic autonomy and tolerate its relations with the West`s rivals and adversaries. Russia, too, did not grudge India`s relations with the West. Both sides were desperate not to lose India. But not anymore. As US frustration with the continuing Ukraine war and Putin`s escalating demands grows, both Trump and other Republican leaders in Congress want to punish Russia with `reinvigorated sanctions` especially by limiting its oil sales so critical to Moscow`s war effort. India, a major buyer of Russian oil, is under the spotlight.

India is also out of place in BRICS and SCO both of which have been impacted by the China-Russia strategic partnership, China-India rivalry, questions about Russia-India relations, and the American president`s policies. Trump has turned international relations into competitive and aggressive bilateralism that is affecting the cohesiveness of emerging structures against the West such as BRICS.America does not encourage a common rallying point for the group anymore. Each member may reach its own tactical adjustment with Washington. No wonder there was a lack of consensus at the last BRICS summit heldrecently in Rio de Janeiro.

India`s hubris thus faces a possible new world, especially having been brought down a notch or two by Pakistan. Trump puts a premium on loyalty, which India clearly has not shown with its strategic autonomy. He does not like anybody to get the better of him or to contradict him like India did with its constant denial of Trump`s role in the ceasefire with Pakistan.

With Trump, India cannot be all over the map now. As Raja Mohan, a prominent Indian analyst close to the establishment, wrote recently, `the notion that India can navigate between great power rivalries freely and without cost has come under close scrutiny`.

India will certainly recover but will find itself facing new challenges in the emerging global scheme of things. Trump would have been long gone but his impact may live on for some time. He would have certainly left behind a strengthened Russia, and a more influential China. Both countries may end up playing a much larger global role, clipping India`s ambitions. • The wnter, a former ambassador, is adjunct professor at Georgetown University