WE are days away from the budget now and its details are still being worked out. Here is some of what we know thus far. They are likely to announce an FBR revenue target around Rs14 trillion (maybe slightly higher). Current expenditures are supposed to stay just below Rs23tr, of which around Rs16tr are federal and the rest from the provinces. The underlying primary balance (deficit plus interest expenditures) must remain somewhere near Rs1.17tr.

These numbers will be more or less fixed since they are part of the medium-term framework already worked out with the IMF and released in the last staff report. Whatever space will need to be made for shifting tax and expenditure priorities must be created in a way that does not change these numbers by too much.

Now consider what they will have to do in the budget. First up, defence spending is supposed to increase by around 13.7 per cent, as per the same medium-term framework, which was drawn up before the recent conflict. We will see how much of an increase actually comes now that the resource requirements of the security forces have undoubtedly increased following the war.

Usually the first place to see cuts is development spending. In the current year, for example, development spending was supposed to be less than Rsitr as per the understanding with the IMF, but the government still announced a federal development programme spending target of Rs1.4tr in its budget last year. But until March, barely Rs309 billion had been spent, while the provinces raced ahead and have spent more than Rs1.2tr already. For next year they are trying to keep the federal development programme down to Rsitr again. Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal has implored the provinces to cooperate with the centre and announce smaller development programmes for the next fiscal year. It is unlikely the provinces will oblige. And the federal government will have to starve its own plans, and its MNAs, in order to keep the fiscal equation more or less in control.

Along with demands for heightened defence spending will come demands for `relief` fromthe citizenry, especially salaried individuals and businesses crushed under a Nordic tax burden. Probably the single largest growth in tax contribution this year has come from salaried individuals, as per figures reported in reputable news dailies.

Consider a few numbers. One reported figure shows that by the time this fiscal year ends, the salaried class would have paid an additional Rs182bn in taxes compared to what it paid last year. Mind you, this is incremental tax, over and above what it paid last year. This would make for a growth rate of almost 50pc in collections from salaried people. Nobody else in the country has borne an incremental burden of this magnitude while seeing their income stagnate and its valuebe obliterated by the most ferocious inflationary fire this country has ever seen. This burden came right as that fire died down. Salaried people have seen predatory taxation and must be the first in line for relief in this budget.

The rising burden on compliant taxpayers has turned into a very serious issue. It was always serious, but now it is probably one of the most important drags on the economy, along with rising energy costs, a poor trade regime, policy inconsistency and lack of sanctity of contracts and all the traditional items we place on this list.

How can they expect growth to reach 4.2pc next fiscal year without wider burden-sharing in revenue collection? If there is any `relief`for real estate speculators in the budget, we will know that this government is standing on legs of jelly. If there are no credible efforts to increase the base of taxation, we will know this government has surrenderedwithout a fight. From what we hear, they are planning far-reaching trade liberalisation. If this step is not accompanied with credible fiscal measures to arrest the growth of the tax burden on compliant payers, we will know the government is not serious about any trade reform or promoting exports, as they claim. They are merely ticking boxes and fulfilling formalities and hiding behind pious-sounding invocations of change and reform.

We have a moment of opportunity here. The economy has stabilised. The inflationary fire has been doused, the deficits bridged, the exchange rate is on an even keel and foreign exchange reserves are on an upward path.

Beyond this, the government enjoys the backing of the powerful establishment and there is no opposition to speak of. Rarely have conditions been this favourable to do something big and transformative.

A lot of sacrifices have been made to bring this about. Let`s not mince words here. Our freedoms, our rights and even our votes have been trampled upon so that the government can enjoy calmer waters to operate in. Our incomes have been burned, and of what is left, a massive share has been appropriated in the name of bridging the yawning deficits that were taking us perilously close to total unviability. This is a lot of sacrifice for a common citizen to have to make.

Now that it has all been done, the least we are owed in return is that something good should come out of it. Give us some sort of a breakthrough, somewhere. Currently, we have a revenue base so narrow that only a ballet dancer could pirouette on it. We have a power sector that generates circular debt more effectively than electricity. We have SOEs whose accumulated losses are comparable to the cost of a large infrastructure project. We are blessed with so many monuments to failed governance that this list gets truly impressive. Those ruling us should make at least one breakthrough against this list to vindicate themselves, and they can start with the upcoming budget. • The writer is a business and economy joumalist.