WASHINGTON: On the first anniversary of the May 2025 IndiaPakistan conflict, a growing body of commentary from US and international analysts suggests that the next such crisis between the two nuclear-armed neighbours is not only more likely, but will prove dangerous with fewer opportunities for outside powers to contain it.

In a piece published on Tuesday, The Washington Post warned that the world may be underestimating the risks. `You know the world scene ischaotic when we`re approaching the first anniversary of a shooting war between two hostile nuclear powers and very few Americans remember it,` the newspaper noted, adding that another crisis is `probably not a question of if, but when.

The editorial described the May 2025 conflict as a new form of `noncontact` war, involving missiles, drones and air power without a ground invasion. It cautioned that both sides may now believe they can fight a limited conventional war without triggering nuclear escalation a conclusion that could prove dangerously flawed.

WaPo also pointed to shifting diplomatic dynamics under President Donald Trump. While acknowledging that US officials `worked the phones and helped calm the situation`, it also highlighted Indian unease over Trump`s repeated claims that he brokered the ceasefire.`A strong sense of independence and sovereignty is extraordinarily important in Indian political culture,` the editorial observed, warning that strained ties could affect Washington`s ability to mediate in a future crisis.

An earlier report by the Congressional Research Service (CRS), the research arm of the US Congress, drew attention to another potential flashpoint: water.

The CRS noted that `the government of India has not presented evidence of a Pakistani link to the attack,` yet responded by placing the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty `in abeyance.

The report underscored the gravity of this move, pointing out that Islamabad considers water a `Vital National Interest` and has warned that any attempt to disrupt flows `willbe considered as an Act of War.

With around 80 per cent ofPakistan`s agriculture dependent on the Indus basin, analysts say water tensions could emerge as a parallel escalation pathway alongside military confrontation.

Environmental risks were also the focus of a recent report by the Centre for Strategic and Contemporary Research (CSCR), which argues that the consequences of conflict extend far beyond the battlefield.

`The most significant, yet often overlooked, impact of war is on the environment of the region,` the report states, warning that even a limited nuclear exchange could trigger `nuclear cooling` through the release of soot into the atmosphere.

Such an event, it adds, could `cool, dry, and darken the earth for decades.

The study cautions that an IndiaPakistan nuclear conflict could disrupt global food systems, leading to a `nuclear famine` that might causestarvation on a massive scale.

Writing in Foreign Affairs, US scholar Elizabeth Threlkeld offered a more detailed look at how escalation dynamics are changing.

`India and Pakistan are already using the last exchange to identify gaps to fill and advantages to exploit should fighting break out again,` she notes.

Threlkeld argues that the risk is shifting from deliberate escalation to inadvertent miscalculation. `That may reduce pressure for deliberate nuclear use, but it increases the risk of inadvertent escalation,` she writes, adding that future conflicts will likely involve `deeper strikes, shorter timelines, and new domains.

She also cautions that Washington may struggle to respond effectively next time, particularly given friction with New Delhi. `Washington may struggle to support deescalation in a faster-moving, unfamiliarcrisis,` she warns.

On its part, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) highlighted how shifting diplomatic alignments are complicating the picture. It notes that `an additional area of tension, from India`s perspective, has resulted from Trump`s claim to have brokered a ceasefire`.

According to the institute, US-Pakistan ties have strengthened since the conflict, with high-level engagement between Washington and Pakistan`s leadership.

Pakistan`s role in mediating talks related to the US-Iran crisis has further elevated its diplomatic standing,even asitfuelsIndian concerns about a perceived tilt in US policy.

Taken together, these assessments point to a sobering conclusion: while the May 2025 conflict stopped short ofnuclear escalation, it may have lowered the threshold forfuture confrontation.