WATER remains the fundamental building block for strengthening the resilience of communities and ecosystems. Climate and the cryosphere are the two pillars responsible for maintaining planetary balance and stability. The rapid changes in the hydrological flows of meltwater and sudden changes in patterns of precipitation are posing a grave risk to human and national security.

Thelevelofpreparednessanddegree ofthreat perception to combat climate change are directly impacted by geographical location, regional relationship dynamics and indigenous capacity for coping. The location of Pakistan and its topography place it in an arc of vulnerability that extends from the cryosphere to the coast compounded by its dependence on a transboundary source of water and its position as a lower riparian.

The Indus stands out as a river most at risk from global warming, with glaciers and snowmelt contributing 50 to 100 per cent of the river`s dry season flows. It sustains 200 million-plus people, who rely on glacial-fed rivers for drinking water, irrigated agriculture, and hydropower. By 2050, the Indus glaciers may reach peak melt, after which flows will decline, worsening water shortage.

As a part of South Asia, Pakistan shares a vast cryospheric space that constitutes the Third Pole. The glaciers of the Third Pole cover 100,000 square kilometres containing 30,000-47,000 cubic kilometres of ice. Any drastic change in the cryospheric behaviour will have a domino effect, cascading all the way from the mountains to the coast, destabilising the lives of the two billion people who inhabit this landmass.

The socioeconomic impact of water scarcity will worsen food security, particularly in countries like Pakistan, India and Bangladesh, where agriculture is heavily dependent on river systems. The loss of water could also disrupt livelihoods, cause economic losses in agriculturedependent sectors, reduce the efficiency of hydroelectric power plants that rely on steady water flows, and trigger displacement and migration, stressing already overburdened urban centres.The Third Pole, therefore, assumes paramount importance in maintaining the balance and stability of all life forms and functions in the South Asian Region (SAR), with the Himalaya, Karakoram and the Hindukush (HKHK) mountains serving as the water towers of South Asia.

The cryosphere is the best and most sensitive barometer of climate change. In a stable climate, the amount of water that melts is replenished by an equal amount of snow to maintain mass and balance. In a rapidly warming world, glaciers will melt faster, there will be less snow for adequate replenishment, frozen reservoirs will get depleted, sea levels will rise, inundating coastal areas, and the ability of glaciers to sustain dryseason flows will collapse.

The HKHK mountains are a common source of water for regional countries. This makes the cryosphere a shared resource that needs to bemanaged through collective ownership as a global common, with respect for the rights of people, nature, biodiversity, and the epistemology of rivers. Climate-triggered disruption in the cyclic flow of river waters can result in disaster with too much resulting in floods and too little causing drought. The year 2024 could well be the turning point in climate change, with record high temperatures and record low snowfall in the HKHK region threatening water supply across South Asia.

The regional dynamics of water are too multidimensional to be managed only through formal agreements that were made at a time when climate change was not a determining factor in water flows. The new emerging threats related to accelerated melting and diminishing flows can only be addressed by recognising the geopolitical relevance of water as a fundamental resource, making water functions a vital economic enablerthat can trigger volatility in commodity markets, drive inflation, and disrupt global supply chains.

The availability of water is no longer only an environmental concern but a force capable of fundamentally reshaping economic power and geopolitical dynamics, making it a critical piece in the climate puzzle.

SAR will soon be in a state of flux as a result of climate-related reasons hitherto not factored into the social and economic dynamics of country-specific development plans. The future of SAR is linked to its cryosphere and in ensuring that its frozen assets remain intact. As every country in the region is an upper or lower riparian state, it is important to initiate a dialogue on hydro solidarity using climate diplomacy as a tool for strengthening collaboration. The magnitude of the threat and its implications on human security make it imperative to shift from a distributive to an integrative approach in negotiations where everyone is a winner and water issues are addressed through cooperative governance.

The cryosphere provides a perfect entry point for investments in water conversations, crossborder dialogues and engagement through collaborative data sharing, coordinated research, and exchange of best practices to strengthen coping mechanisms.

The future resilience of Pakistan pivots around water. Both surface and groundwater are under acute stress and require investments to ensure availability and improve efficiency.

Climate change and the designation of 2025 as the International Year of Glaciers` Preservation offer South Asia an opportunity to embark on a new relationship trajectory that revives the spirit of the South Asian Regional Cooperation and helps SAR optimise its full potential. The benefits of regional cooperation and de-escalation outweigh the cost of confrontation. The best way to address South Asia`s water security challenges is through solidarity, cooperation, and diplomacy.• The writer is chief executive of the Civil Society Coalition for Climate Change.

aisha @csccc.org. pk