UNTIL recently, the technical debate had focused primarily on whether individual Indian projects are within the engineering criteria of Indus Waters Treaty, or otherwise. While that scrutiny remains important, it no longer captures the broader strategic picture.

Following India`s decision to hold the treaty in abeyance, Pakistan`s concern has shifted from individual projects to the cumulative impact of multiple upstream interventions operating together.

Technical assessments indicate that existing operational projects already provide India with the capability to regulate Chenab flows over significant periods during the year. As projects presently under constructionbecome operational, this capability is expected to increase substantially.

Diversion works, including the planned expansion of the Ranbir Canal and ChenabBeas Link Tunnel, would further enhance this capability, particularly during the lean-flow months when Pakistan`s dependence on the Chenab is greatest. The implications for Pakistan are more serious than a limited military conflict with India.

The strategic challenge confronting Pakistan demands a response that is comprehensive, forward looking and implemented through a whole-of-the-nation approach. This is not a moment for rhetoric; it is a moment for national resolve, sound diplomacy and accelerated development.

Pakistan`s response must rest on three mutually reinforcing pillars: diplomatic engagement, legal action and strategic water development.

Firstly, Pakistan should continue to pursue all available diplomatic avenues to preserve the integrity of the Indus Waters Treaty. The Permanent Indus Commission must remain the principal platform for technical dialogue, information exchange and resolution of emerging issues.

Simultaneously, Pakistan should actively engage the World Bank, friendly countries and the broader international community to reinforce the importance of honoring international treaty obligations.

The credibility of international agreements depends not merely on negotiation process but on faithful implementation of each clause particularly the treaties recognized internationally. Hence, Indian actions have to be viewed by international community seriously as these carry dangerous potential for jeopardizing regional peace.

Secondly, Pakistan should continue to safeguard its rights through the legal mechanisms provided under the Indus Waters Treaty and applicable principles of international law. The treaty has governed one of the world`s largest transboundary river systems for more than six decades because it established clearly defined rights, obligations and dispute resolution procedures.These mechanisms must continue to serve as the primary means of addressing differences. A rules-based approach remains indispensable for maintaining confidence in international water governance and regional stability.

Thirdly, Pakistan must significantly accelerate the development of its own water resources. Diplomacy and legal processes are essential, but they cannot substitute for nationalpreparedness.

The Planning Commission of Pakistan has established promising targets for the next decade to strengthen Pakistan`s water security.

These include increasing national strategic water storage capacity from 13.5 MAF to 23.5 MAF, enhancing water availability at farm gates from 64 MAF to 84 MAF, and improving overall irrigation water-use efficiency from approximately 40pc to 70pc.

Achieving these targets will require sustained investments in storage infrastructure, irrigation modernization, watershed management, and institutional reforms.

Timely completion of the Diamer-Basha dam, Mohmand dam, the Dasu Hydropower Project and Tarbela`s fifth extension must remain national priorities to increase storage, improve flood regulation and expand clean hydropower generation.

Similarly, projects such as the ManglaMarala Link Canal, Sindh Barrage, Chashma Right-Bank Canal, Kachhi Canal, the K-IV Water Supply Project and the proposed Chenab Cascade projects should be expedited through broader national consensus to enhance operational flexibility, irrigation efficiency and drought resilience.

These projects are no longer simply development initiatives; these are strategic investments in Pakistan`s long-term water, food and energysecurity.

The debate overthe construction oflargedams in Pakistan may continue; however, the hydrological realities of Indus Basin are unequivocal.

Approximately 84pc of the country`s annual river flows occur within only three to four months, while the remaining 16pc is distributed over the other eight to nine months of the year. This pronounced seasonal variability makes adequate water storage indispensable for ensuring sustainable water supplies, strengthening food security, enhancing energy generation, mitigating floods, and improving resilience to climate change.

Under Pakistan`s current leadership, a historic breakthrough has been achieved in the form of national consensus on cost sharing for water security projects. For the first time since independence, provinces have collectively agreed to support development of strategic water storage infrastructure and have agreed to contribute financially towards the implementation of these nationally vital projects. This consensus marks a major milestone in fast tracking ongoing and future water and energy sector projects.

The Tarbela and Mangla dams were constructed at an approximate cost of $2 billion each (excluding subsequent raising and rehabilitation investments). Since commissioning,these strategicnationalassetshave generated extraordinary economic benefits through irrigation, hydropower production, flood mitigation, and water regulation.

Based on World Bank estimates, Tarbela Dam has contributed economic benefits exceeding $460 billion, while Mangla Dam has generated benefits exceeding $301 billion, making them among the most economically productive infrastructure investments in Pakistan`s history.

Pakistan must also modernise the management of Indus Basin system throughreal-time telemetry, satellite-based monitoring, artificial intelligence, advanced hydrological forecasting and integrated basin modelling.

In an era where upstream regulation capability is expanding, timely and reliable information has become as important as physical infrastructure. Scientific water management and data-driven decisionmaking must become central components of Pakistan`s national water strategy.

Pakistan`s response must be guided by confidence rather than complacency. The country should continue to defend the treaty through diplomacy, technical engagement and international law, with the firm expectation that India will have to return to its obligations under the treaty, while sustaining its long-standing national requirement of investing in strategic water infrastructure, expanding storage capacity, improving irrigation efficiency and adopting modern technologies for basin management.

The Indus Waters Treaty has endured because it recognised a fundamental principle: the sustainable management of transboundary rivers is essential for peace, stability and shared prosperity. Preserving the treaty`s faithful implementation is, therefore, not merely a legal obligation; it is indispensable for safeguarding Pakistan`s water, foodandenergysecurity.

History will judge our generation not by the challenges it inherited, but by whether or not it had the vision, unity and resolve to secure water for Pakistan`s rapidly growing future needs.

The writer is currently serving as chairman of the Water and Power Development Authority.

This is the second and concluding part of this article; the f irst part was published in Monday`s newspaper