THE Afghan Taliban are making speculation about the life and death of its leader something of a habit. Was Mullah Mansour injured in a shooting incident in Pakistan or was he killed? An audio recording of a man claiming to be Mullah Mansour has denied that he was in the area outside Quetta where he was reported to be, that there was an argument with a rival faction, and that he was injured at all in any incident. Given the charade that Mullah Mansour presided over for more than two years to conceal the death of Mullah Omar, few within Taliban ranks and certainly outside would be willing to believe an audio message alone. More evidence will certainly be needed, particularly since the Afghan government continues to suggest that the Taliban leader is, in fact, dead.

What this latest episode cannot mask is that there are continuing and possibly growing divisions within the Taliban. The unity that Mullah Mansour has being trying to project does not appear to exist.

With the fighting season now largely over, the effect of internal Taliban discord at least until next spring is likely to be mostly on the fate of talks that Pakistan and the outside world are believed to be trying to restart. If he is, in fact, dead or injured, it is difficult to imagine talks restarting anytime soon. But even if Mullah Mansour is alive and well, the ongoing internal Taliban difficulties make it implausible that the first priority will be to work towards a peace settlement with the Afghan government. An urgent push for peace would expose the Taliban leader to yet more criticism from dissident members who would try and paint him as little more than a puppet of Pakistan and other international powers that the group has fought against for over a decade. Perhaps it would be best to have contingency plans in place if Mullah Mansour cannot convince all or most of the Taliban, then lines of communication need to be opened to other major factions.