Reluctance to talk
BY TOUQlR H USSAIN
2025-03-09
THE story of Pakistan-India ties in recent years revolves around India`s rise, and Pakistan`s internal challenges and diminished global status. The disparity in power and image of the two is at the centre of India`s unwillingness to talk to Pakistan.
India has broken through the South Asian ceiling and acquired a place at the global high table. US patronage has no doubt helped in raising its economic weight, military potential, and diplomatic stature. India now wants Pakistan to take cognisance of its status by being haughty, unapproachable, and reluctant to talk.
The trajectory of US-India strategic and economic relations, embracing trade, security, defence and technology cooperation, has been in the ascendant for the past 25 years. Prime Minister Narendra Modi`s recent visit to Washington and his talks with Donald Trump made their own contribution to advancing the US-India relationship further, especially with America`s offer to sell F-35s, America`s most advanced military aircraft. As the Economist put it, `America is betting on India`s inexorable rise.
India has come a long way from its embarrassing status as an unconvincing regional power to which its neighbour had the `pretensions` to speak as an `equal`.
India feels Pakistan is still living that illusion. Most of Pakistan`s strategic community keeps complaining that Washington is giving `preferential` treatment to India, as if the two relationships served the same or equal purpose and were interchangeable.
The reality is that America`s ties with India and Pakistan are totally different, serving different purposes. Each relationship rose or declined independently, neither limited nor enhanced by the other.
India hopes that the refusal of dialogue would force Pakistan to know its place rather than harbour pretensions of being its rival or competitor.
Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar keeps calling Pakistan `irrelevant`, implying that India does not need Pakistan, which has lost its leverage due to the Afghanistan problem, erosion in its global standing, diminished influence in the Middle East, increased external dependence, and vulnerability to international pressure. This assessment by India no doubt figured in its calculation that its action on Aug 5, 2019 to rescind Kashmir`s special constitutional status would not evoke aseriousinternationalresponse.
India thinks that by revoking its special status, it has made Kashmir an internal matter, thus removing it as a subject of a bilateral agenda with Pakistan and mak-ing the dispute a non-issue by depriving Pakistan of the opportunity to advance the cause internationally. Dialogue with Pakistan would reverse these `gains`, as Pakistan would focus on Kashmir at the talks. Dialogue would also attract global media coverage which Pakistan would use to publicise the Kashmir situation. India feels a muted relationship would help it create new ground realities in Kashmir which Kashmiris and Pakistan might come to accept sooner or later.
The lack of dialogue also gives India the option to continue talking about terrorism to malign Pakistan and thus disaffect Washington towards Pakistan. The terrorism issue gets highlighted in USIndia joint statements, including the latest one after Prime Minister Narendra Modi`s recent visit to the US. India`s role in fighting terrorism, an interest America shares, also enhances India`s value as a US ally.
India knows Islamabad is interested in the dialogue partly because it hopes it would open the way for economic ties withate alternative transit corridors through Chabahar.
Finally, the Baloch insurgency and the TTP. Their dynamics are domestic but external support, evidently from India and the Afghan Taliban, has been critical to these outfits` viability. India cannot continue this support and have a dialogue with Pakistan at the same time. It suits India that Pakistan remains under siege from its internal challenges. For India, the loss of benefits of a normal relationship with Pakistan is insignificant compared with the gains of hostility.
There`s no point, then, in Pakistan seeking a dialogue. The fact is that whether the two countries have been talking or not has made little difference to their relations. Pakistan`s primary challenges are domestic. A strengthened Pakistan will make Jaishankar rethink whether India with its present policies itself risks becoming irrelevant for Pakistan. Only then will India engage with Pakistan seriously. The wnter, a former ambassador, is adjunct professor Georgetown University and Visiting Senior Fellow National University of Singapore.