FOR the last several weeks, life in Balochistan has been paralysed with most highways connecting the province with the rest of the country blocked by protesters, while mobile services have been suspended. Quetta, the provincial capital, is virtually under siege with the administration desperately trying to stop protesters, led by Akhtar Mengal, from entering the city.

There appears to be complete breakdown of the state`s authority in large parts of the troubled province. Even leaders like Mr Mengal and some other Baloch nationalists, who were seen as the last bridge between an alienated population and the state, seem to have lost hope in the political process. The former provincial chief minister, who is also head of his faction of the Balochistan National Party (BNP) resigned from the National Assembly a few months ago citing frustration over the parliament`s apathy towards `insecurity faced by the people of Balochistan.

He recently returned from the UAE, where he has been living since he quit as a parliamentarian, amid escalating tensions in the aftermath of the latest wave of militant violence and terrorism in the province. He is now leading a `long march` against the arrests of the Baloch Yakjehti Committee (BYC) leaders. The march has now been joined by several other nationalist groups and mainstream political parties. The growing mass discontent against state excesses has pushed many among the Baloch youth towards supporting militant groups; this worrying trend could make the nationalist parties completely irrelevant.

In such a situation the state will be left with no one to talk to. But there seems to be no realisation of the gravity of the situation in the corridors of power in Islamabad and Rawalpindi. Instead, we are witnessing increasing use of coercive power to silence even the rational voices, forcing them to abandon the democratic path. The ongoing crackdown on political opposition in the wake of rising militant violence and terrorism has turned the situation in the province extremely volatile.

A fractured provincial government with questionable legitimacy has completely lost the plot.

It`s apparent that the real power lies with theestablishment, which sees the situation only through the security lens. That has been the major reason for the state losing the hearts and minds of the people. That certainly provides a favourable environment for terrorist groups to operate with greater impunity.

The recent wave of high-profile terrorist attacks across the province is also testimony to the state losing control. According to some reports, up to 20 of the province`s districts are now affected by militant violence and political unrest. The collapse of administration has worsened the situation.

Reportedly, some of the provincial cabinet ministers cannot go to their constituencies even with heavy security detail. The recent hijacking of a passenger train and simultaneous terrorist attacks in different parts of the province underscore the increasing capabilities of militant groups. This could not have been possible without local support. The crackdown by the security forces provides these groups with more recruits.

The growing ranks of women fighters have given Baloch militancy a more lethal dimension.

There have been many cases of women suicide bombers carrying out terrorist attacks, particularly on security targets. Women are also leading the rights movement. For example, many see Dr Mahrang Baloch as the leading light of the movement for rights. Most of the women who are now leading the rights movement have their own stories of family members becoming victims of apparent state oppression. The emergence of a new generation of young and educated Baloch resistance leadership has rendered the old guard politically irrelevant. The state now has to deal with them. But there seems to be no understanding of the fast-changing political landscape in the province.

Whatever is happening in Balochistan now is the consequence of decades-long state misrule, neglect, and denying people their basic fundamental political and economic rights. The growing alienation and rising separatist militant violence seems to be a reaction to the colonial methods and mindset of our ruling elite and the establishment.The security forces now find themselves confronting a fifth Baloch insurgency. There have been four previous insurgencies -1948, 1958-59, 1962-63 and 1973-77. This time, the insurgents appear better prepared and possess sophisticated weapons and a modern communications system.

The province had remained relatively stable after the last insurgency, and the restoration of democracy in 1988 brought Baloch nationalists into the mainstream. Though many of their demands, with regard to natural gas royalty and the province`s natural resources, were not fulfilled, democratic rule provided the Baloch a sense of political participation.

Tensions began to mount in 2003 when the Musharraf regime announced plans for three new cantonments in the province. The idea did not go down well with local political forces. The increasing deployment of security personnel further fuelled discontent.

In Balochistan, even the maintenance of law and order is largely the preserve of federally controlled paramilitary forces. This, amongst other matters, has exacerbated the situation. Even the present provincial government, which has been propped up by the establishment, wields no real power.

One thought that the worsening terrorist violence and protests may work as a wake-up call and would compel the federal government and the establishment to do some course correction and engage with nationalist leaders to find a political solution. But it has not happened.

Instead, the government has set up a `hardening of state` committee headed by the federal interior minister. One wonders what this means.

There are several unanswered questions about what exactly constitutes the `hardening of the state`. The state can only be strengthened by removing the sources of discontent, and not by gimmickry. One can only hope that better sense will prevail before it is too late. M The writer is an author and joumalist.

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