INDIA`S series of drone strikes inside Pakistan on Thursday marked a dramatic shift in the dynamics of the conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbours, signalling a new and dangerous phase in the long-simmering rivalry between the two.

The strikes, carried out with Israeli-made Harop drones as part of `Operation Sindoor`, seemed to be an effort by New Delhi to assert its dominance -responding swiftly and forcefully after the devastating loss of five fighter jets, including its prized Rafales.

Pakistan said it had neutralised 29 of the drones using electronic jamming and ground fire.

While the Pakistani military scored a tactical win by downing fighter jets, India`s attacks on Pakistan`s mainland, both the May 7 missile strikes and the drone swarm soon afterwards shows it wants to dictate the terms of conflict.

`India wants to demonstrate escalation dominance, signalling to Pakistan that it believes it can dominate and control any further rounds of escalation,` Shashank Joshi, defence editor of The Economist, told Dawn.

The most telling aspect of this drone operation was India`s focus on `Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD)`in military terms, a mission traditionally reserved for full-scale war.

One of the drones, according to ISPR spokesman Lt Gen Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, `partially succeeded` in striking amilitary target near Lahore, injuring four soldiers.

By targeting cantonments and defence assets, India seeks to diminish Pakistan`s deterrence. It can also be trying to bait Islamabad into revealing its defensive playbook by exposing its air defence grid.

`Both sides are trying to map each others` air defence systems, India more so than Pakistan. After air combat between two sides the other day, the contest is now in domain of air defences with both sides attempting to gain an operational advantage,` Muhammad Faisal, South Asia security researcher at the University of Technology Sydney said.

What are Harop drones? The Harop drones, developed by Israel Aerospace Industries, are not traditional unmanned armed vehicles (UAVs), but loitering munitions-a hybrid between a drone and a missile.

Designed for SEAD operations, Harops autonomously seek out and destroy targets that emit a radar signature, delivering high-explosive payloads with precision. Their ability to approach from unpredictable angles makes them particularly lethal in contested airspace.

The drone can operate both fully autonomously or be manually operated in its human-in-the-loop mode. If a target is not engaged, the drone can return and land itself back at base. Harop, with its folding wings, can be launched from a truckor ship-mounted canister, or configured for air-launch.

Mr Joshi noted that the choice of targets by India revealed an intent to escalate. `The decision to send drones over Lahore and Karachi, and the decision to target ... explicitly military targets, represents a significant step up in the Indian campaign,` he maintained.

India justified the drone attacks by asserting that Pakistani missiles had targeted military facilities in 15 Indian cities the previous night-a claim New Delhi has yet to substantiate with evidence.

This rationale appears more as a cover than a factual claim, much like the absence of justification for the May 7 airstrikes.

Under the International Humanitarian Law, targeting civilian sites, as India did in Pakistan, is a grave violation.

Changing calculus The use of Harops also marks a departure from India`s traditional reliance on conventional aerial strikes and a movement toward asymmetrical, techdriven warfare.

In recent history, India has steered clear of targeting mainland Pakistan, relying instead on border skirmishes or air raids. That calculus seems to have changed now.

India`s choice to strike deep into Pakistan means that the prospect of a retaliation is no longer hypothetical; it`s a virtual certainty. The tit-for-tat exchanges are widening the conflict`s scope, with a trajectory that risks spiraling out of control.

Despite the aggravation of tensions, there is still hope. Direct communication lines like the DGMO hotline and communication between national security advisers is continuing, presenting a narrow diplomatic window. That said, the path toward de-escalation appears increasingly fraught.

While the United States has historically played a de-escalatory role in India-Pakistan crises, its response so far has been markedly subdued.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio`s call with Pakistan`s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Thursday, following his earlier outreach to both countries` National Security Advisers, signalled continued diplomatic engagement but not urgency.

`[The] US approach towards this conflict leaves space open for escalation as both sides interpret it as space for operational action,` Faisal argued.