EVEN though the appointment of a new governor in Punjab has somewhat reduced political uncertainty in the country`s most populous province, the fledgling government of Chief Minister Hamza Shehbaz has several more bridges to cross before it can expect to complete the remaining term of the provincial assembly. The immediate challenge facing it pertains to the passage of next year`s budget as it remains unclear whether it still enjoys a simple majority among the existing 346 assembly members following the disqualification of 25 PTI MPAs, including five elected on reserved seats, who had voted for the incumbent in the chief minister`s election. Besides, the government is faced with multiple cases in the courts filed by the PTI-PML-Q combine, challenging the legitimacy of the chief minister`s election. Nonetheless, the upcoming by-elections on 20 provincial assembly seats, which fell vacant after the disqualification of the PTI defectors, scheduled to be held around five weeks from now, may prove to be the biggest headache for the ruling coalition, and the continuation of the Hamza Shehbaz set-up in the province. The PML-N and its allies must win most of these seats if not all to ensure a simple majority of 186 members in a full House, and keep their hold on the province.

This is the first time in the parliamentary history of Punjab that by-elections are simultaneously being held in such a large number of provincial constituencies. That the PML-N is reported to have hammered out its differences with its ally, the PPP, and formulated a joint strategy to contest against the PTI-PML-Q alliance after a meeting between Asif Zardari and Hamza Shehbaz on Tuesday doesn`t necessarily mean that its electoral troubles are over. The PML-N is facing prospects of rebellion from within the party in some constituencies where it plans to field PTI defectors on its tickets.

Needless to say, local political formations play a critical role on polling day in Punjab. If the PML-N reneges on its commitment to the defectors, the integrity of its leadership will be badly hurt. Then, some defectors want to contest independently, although with the PML-N backing them. This means they won`t be bound to toe the party line if returned to the assembly. How successfully the PML-N negotiates the upcoming electoral challenges has implications for not only the future of the Hamza Shehbaz set-up, but also for the party`s chances in the next elections.