CORPORATE farming in Cholistan, as part of the military-backed Green Pakistan Initiative (GPI), is a scheme which has the potential to revolutionise Pakistan`s agricultural landscape.

However, its success hinges on intelligent implementation within socioeconomic and scientific boundaries. If mismanaged, not only will the initiative fail, it will also damage the credibility of its architects, who conceived it as a win-win strategy for all Pakistanis.

Unfortunately, the initiative is already losing credibility due to the controversial Cholistan Canal, which the lower riparian federating units fear will impact their water share under the Water Apportionment Accord of 1991. While these concerns may be part real and part politically motivated, they must be addressed before they escalate further. An alternative to the Cholistan Canal is necessary to ensure that the GPI succeeds in the goal of benefiting all.

To establish highly productive corporate farms in Cholistan, which can compete in international markets, it is necessary to bridge the gap between current realities and the envisioned future. This entails an approach that is scientifically sound, socially cohesive, financially viable, and environmentally sustainable.

A corporate farm`s success is linked to a reliable level of service for water supply; every other factor depends on it. A corporate farm requires a 24/7, year-round, drought-proof water supply of sufficient quality for high-efficiency irrigation systems. The supply must match daily and seasonal demand variability, be free from bureaucratic and political disruptions, be insured and be cost-effective. Additionally, for farm products to meet the standards of environmentally sensitive global markets, the water must be pollutant-free, and its diversion should have minimally negative social and environmental impacts. If any proposed water supply system fails to meet this stringent level of service, the entire initiative will be in peril.

To successfully implement corporate farming in Cholistan, we must thoroughly understand the scientific realities of the region`s hydrology, geology, morphology, soils, and climate. Cholistan`s is an aeolian environment characterised by sand dunes, undulating topography, and hard pans. The region is underlain by saline groundwater, which is unfit for human and animal consumption as well as agriculture. Some pockets of shallow freshwa-ter exist along the old bed of the Hakra/Sarasvati river, an ephemeral river cut off by India`s Rajasthan Canal. These groundwater pockets are only recharged during the occasional rainfall.

While the locals have traditionally relied on these pockets for potable water and subsistence agriculture, high-capacity tube wells have resulted in over-extraction, often causing saline upwelling that renders wells useless and leads to secondary salinisation over vast areas. Largescale groundwater extraction for corporate farming would be short-lived, alienate local communities, and accelerate land degradation. It would also fail to meet the necessary level of service, and is, thus, not recommended.

The next nearest freshwater source is the Sutlej, which, along with the Ravi, was forfeited to India under the Indus Waters Treaty, 1960.

These rivers are now primarily fed through link canals from the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.Unfortunately, the treaty permits India to discharge wastewater into the Ravi and Sutlej without any cap on quality or quantity. Resultantly, these rivers carry significant pollutants, which enter the food chain when their waters are diverted into the irrigation canals at Sulemanki and Islam headworks. The presence of these pollutants is often held responsible for the high rates of gastrointestinal, liver, and kidney diseases in south Punjab. Using this polluted water for corporate farming would introduce toxins into farm produce, making it unfit for international markets. Additionally, the high silt loads and biological contamination in the Sutlej render the river`s waters unsuitable for modern irrigation, which relies on pumps, pipes and nozzles. Addressing silt loads requires costly de-silting ponds prone to eutrophication, further complicating water management. Removing toxins is another challenge.

Canals are sensitive to topography and cannotsurvive in the aeolian desert conditions. India`s Rajasthan Canal serves as a cautionary tale, where thousands of kilometres of concrete-lined canals have been buried under the sand, rendering billions of dollars of investment useless. If Pakistan blindly follows this model, the GPI will suffer a similar fate.

Existing canal-based farming communities are already facing water shortages. They fear further diversions for corporate farming will exacerbate their crisis, leading to social unrest. Given these significant challenges, diverting water from the Sutlej via canals will not serve the GPPs goals.

Recognising the shortcomings of both local groundwater extraction and additional canals from the Sutlej, the GPI leadership commissioned a detailed study in September 2023. The study, which was completed in April 2024, aimed to develop a climate-smart, nature-inspired engineering solution for sustainable water supply that would be compatible with the required level of service.

The study identified abundant renewable storage for potable water under the riverbed sands (riverine aquifer) of the Sutlej and Indus rivers 34 million acre feet and 110 MAF respectively (for comparison, Tarbela holds 7 MAF).

The study proposed a state-of-the-art river bank filtration system to extract, transmit, and distribute water sustainably and efficiently from the riverine aquifers, using AI-powered management and precision irrigation systems. This approach is aimed at avoiding ecological disruptionsand ensuringthatotherregionsretaintheir mandated water share. The study suggests an initial pilot project with a capacity of 100 cusecs, which could be scaled up. According to the GPI: `The solution is significantly easier to build and operate than traditional solutions based on dams, barrages, and canals.

Unfortunately, it is apparent that certain vested interests are pushing for canal construction while disregarding the potential scientific, social and environmental consequences, which can endanger the project`s success. To ensure inclusivity and a win-win for all citizens, the decision-makers must proceed with caution. Let it not be said that `Green Pakistan` was hijacked by `Greed Pakistan`. • The writer is an expert on hydrology and water resources.