AN optimist is one who believes in reincarnation. In that sense, His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama is the supreme optimist.

The title `Dalai Lama` Holiness Knowing Everything Vajradhara Dalai Lama was bestowed in 1578 by Altan Khan (a descendant of Kublai Khan and the first Shunyi King of Ming China), on his tutor Sonam Gyatso, the then leader of the Gelug school of Buddhism. Sonam Gyatso became the third Dalai Lama. The first and second Dalai Lamas were given the honorific posthumously.

Tibet came into its own during the tenure of the fifth Dalai Lama Ngawang Lobsang Gyatso (1617-1682). The `Great Fifth` became the first to unify Tibet`s political and spiritual leadership roles. Interestingly, a century earlier, in 1534, the English King Henry VIII had declared himself the Supreme Head of the Church of England.

That duality continues. Great Britain is still, like the Vatican and Iran, a theocracy.

The scholarly fifth Dalai Lama, as head of state, established diplomatic relations with the Chinese Qing dynasty. From 1720 until 1912, Tibet remained a Chinese protectorate. For about 40 years thereafter, Tibet enjoyed a brief interlude of autonomy.

It remained, however, mired in archaic tradition. `Its socioeconomic and political systems resembled Mediaeval Europe.

In October 1950, the Chinese invaded Tibet. A month later, El Salvador sponsored Tibet`s complaint at the UN. India and the UK prevented a debate. A year later, China entered Lhasa and formally annexed Tibet.

In 1954, the present Dalai Lama (then 19 years old) was invited to China. There, he met Chairman Mao Zedong. During their final meeting, the sage Mao disconcerted the immature Tibetan with the observation: `I understand you very well. But of course, religion is poison. It has two great defects: It undermines the race, and secondly it retards the progress of the country.

Tibet and Mongolia have both been poisoned by it.

In 1959, an older and wiser Dalai Lama, fearing arrest by the Chinese, escaped to India, with CIA`s help. (He later outgrew the CIA. In 1972, he terminated the CIA Tibetan programme, accusing it of serving only `American interests`.) He settled finally in Dharamsala, where he established a government in exile. He now rules over a Himalayan facsimile known as `Little Tibet`.

The West regards the Dalai Lama as a symbol of Eastern enlightenment, rather as it did Jiddu Krishnamurti (Annie Besant`s candidate for Buddhahood) or Maharishi Yogi (beloved of the Beatles). Western powers have used the Dalai Lama as a spiritual pawn, a Tibetan red flag with which toantagonise China. In 1989, he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. His office reports that `His Holiness has travelled to more than 67 countries spanning six continents.

He has received over 150 awards, honorary doctorates, prizes, etc. [...] and authored or co-authored more than 110 books`.

This month, he celebrated his 90th birthday. As a manifestation of Avalokiteshvara (the Bodhisattva of Compassion) whose mortal life is committed to help humanity, the Dalai Lama intends to return as the 15th Tulku or reincarnation.

His own selection in 1937 was a simple process. He was two years old at the time. A team of senior monks used `visions, oracles, and identity tests to confirm him as an incarnation of his predecessor`. Today, he has somewhat complicated matters by declaring that `his successor could be born outside of China (ie, not in the Tibet Autonomous Region), and potentially be a woman`.

The Chinese have no problem with gender. They have strong reservations aboutLhamo Thondup or Tenzin Gyatso (his religious name) reappearing outside Tibet. The numbers favour China.

There are about 3.2 million Tibetans living in the Tibet Autonomous Region and 6.3m scattered across China.

There are only 150,000 Tibetans living in exile around the world in India, Nepal, Bhutan,Europe and North America. (The Hollywood actor Richard Gere is prominent amongst the Dalai Lama`s followers).

Some argue that Tibetans actually prefer to remain in the Middle Ages, impervious to change. The 13th Dalai Lama had made efforts between 1913 and 1933 to modernise his people but failed, because of `opposition from powerful aristocrats and monks`. Today`s Tibet can boast an increased GDP, a reduction in poverty, widespread education, and an extensive infrastructure, including a train that connects Beijing with Lhasa, 3,757 kilometres away.

At his 90th birthday celebration, the Dalai Lama said that as he has been able `to serve the Buddhadharma` (the teachings of Buddhism), he hopes to continue until he is 130 years old (ie, until 2065). He is in no hurry to reincarnate. He knows he will be returning to a divided, war-torn, irreligious world which neither he nor previous incarnations could improve. • The wnter is an author.

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