World on edge as Trump gets ready
2024-12-10
DONALD Trump`s resounding victory in the presidential elections that were recently held in the United States has frightened the world. In capitals around the world, thereis asense of dread and anxiety, while, in others, the mood is that ofexultation. In the US itself, immigrants and naturalised citizens seem worried.
In his previous term, Trump had left deep divisions and inflicted grievous scars on American society. Racism spiked to unprecedented levels. Trump`s mercurial predisposition as well as his transactionalapproach and aversion to the liberal world order is viewed by analysts as the most worrisome of his personality traits.
His intense loathing of constitutional and democratic norms, and superficial knowledge of international security matters, coupled with an authoritarian bent of mind, remind one of the rise of Adolf Hitler in 1933.The two differ only in political creed, `Lebensraum` (living space) and `America First`, but wield an identical state of mind. One does not need to cite how Hitler`s undisguised ambitions changed the course of world history.
Hitler`s propaganda tsar once remarked, `Give me resources and I will make the people believe the devil is God.` Would it be far-fetched to surmise that had Hitler not been on the global scene, there would have been no nuclear weapons around? For Trump, climate change is a `big hoax`, and that bodes ill for the future.
Regardless, the interest, fear and jubilation produced by Trump`s second win clearly lead to one simple conclusion: the US is still the most powerful actor within the international system. China, a peer competitor, is in several and critical ways still behind.
Trump will inherit a different world than it was in his previous term. In theatres of war, like Russia-Ukraine and IsraelLebanon, belligerents are showing strategic exhaustion. Vladimir Putin is not likely to be an easy diplomatic win-over by Trump, especially given his recent success on the ground against Ukraine.
Iran, though quite weak economically, has placed its nuclear programme on a fast track. The Houthis are still vibrant, with enough potential to imperil global shipping in the Red Sea. Both Hamas and Hezbollah have been hit hard, but they have not been demolished.
On its part, China stands stronger in the larger western Pacific region, with American power standing rather diluted.With a toxically hawkish anti-China nominee Marco Rubio as the next secretary of state, one wonders what to make of the US naval chief`s recent memorandum asking the US Navy to be ready for war with China in 2027.
In Australia, apprehensions are widespread about the continuity of the trilateral security partnership involving Australia, the United Kingdom and the US (AUKUS), a technical arrangement aimed at equipping Australia with eight Virginia class nuclear attack submarines.
Moreover, Australia fears that under the `America First` refrain, Trump may annul the agreement on the pretext of arming the US Navy which is already short of such submarines.
Trump`s philosophy of uninhibited use of American power to upend the world and change the US domestically will soon bump into ground realities. Mass deportations and the use of military for politicalpurposes are bound to create unimaginable chaos at home.
The world, meanwhile, sits on the edge, like millions of those watching on the US soil, waiting for the catastrophe to unfold.
Cdre (retd) Muhammad Azam Khan Lahore