IT was a week of turnarounds. The Trump White House, eager to remain on the warpath with the rest of the world, came down with ridiculous and enormous tariffs for other countries. On April 2, 2025, President Donald Trump imposed a universal tariff on most nations, sending the US stock market into a tailspin, with trillions of dollars wiped out within days.

For his part, President Donald Trump acted nonchalant and went off to play golf with the visiting Saudis. Then on April 9, even more draconian reciprocal tariffs were imposed on another slew of countries allegedly based on a formula that assessed trade deficits and existing tariffs on American goods. Amid the mess, Trump officials advised targeted countries not to retaliate.

China, however, did not listen. After the April 2 tariffs, it decided to retaliate with an 84 per cent tariff on US goods, hiked later to 125pc in response to a further increase by Trump. Unsurprisingly, this turmoil rattled investors everywhere, and nearly all markets took a hit. Economists and analysts began sounding the alarm about a global recession. The White House`s belligerence didn`t suggest that the president who is using emergency powers to enact these tariffs was about to capitulate.

It might have gone on had the US bond market, one of the world`s safest and most stable investments, not suddenly started to tank. The bond market essentially the channel through which countries buy US debt in 10and 30-year increments reflects global confidence in America`s ability to repay its dues. That confidence has traditionally remained high, given the size and strength of the US economy.

Unlike stocks, which are known for their volatility, the bond market is supposed to be steady. But not this time.

The sudden volatility there is likely what forced Trump`s hand, when he recently announced a 90-day pause in tariffs on all countries except China. Stock markets around the world exhaled. The NASDAQ posted its biggest single-day gain since 2008. China, however, now faces 125pc tariffs.

The world`s two strongest economies have locked horns and this will affect everyone, including Pakistan. While Pakistan was among the countries hit with a 29pc tariff (now paused for 90 days), the current situation may present an opening.

One of the things the US is pursuing is to negotiate entirely new trade agreements with the rest of the world. The tariffs, in this sense, are a strange sort of invitation to close a `deal` with the Trump administration. Countries that do so may find them-selves in a better position than those that don`t. All they need is to propose something the Trump team can spin as a win.

The countries that dominated in the preTrump 2.0 world are no longer favourites.

The US turn away from China and, to some extent, India means it will need to rely on smaller suppliers to fill the gaps left behind. The aim is to decimate China`s monopoly by diversifying who gets access to the US consumer market. Pakistan could play a role in this diversification. It cannot replace China or India, but may be able to find niche areas that serve unmet demand in the US.

This task would have been easier had the US objectives around these tariffs been clearer. Take the case of Vietnam, slammed with a 45pc tariff before the 90-day pause. Exports to the US make up nearly a quarter of Vietnam`s GDP, so it was no surprise the latter country quickly arrived at the negotiating table. The Trump administration`sresponsewasunexpected.

Trump adviser Peter Navarro dismissedVietnam`s Opc tariff offer as `not enough`.

The reason? Navarro accused Vietnam of `non-tariff cheating` routing Chinese goods through its ports to bypass US restrictions. The message was blunt: Vietnam must choose between the US and China. In Trump`s world, thereis no room for divided loyalties. Vietnam, it seems, has made its choice. Reports now suggest the country has agreed to purchase expensive defence equipment including warplanes to help reduce the trade deficit and show goodwill.

Adept diplomats negotiating on Pakistan`s behalf could learn a lot from this. Pakistan desperately needs better trade agreements to lift itself out of economic stagnation and reduce its dependence on IMF lifelines. The country has the capacity to supply textile-based goods to the US consumer market and with China out of the picture those products could fare better if Pakistan secures more favourable trade terms.

China`s loss could be Pakistan`s gain if Pakistan is bold enough to seize the moment and clinch a deal with the Trump administration that can be packaged as a win.

For a country that has waited a long time for an opportunity, this might be one. • The wnter is an attorney teaching constitutional law and political philosophy rafia.zakaria@gmail.com