WITH the Afghan security and political transition in a state of suspended animation both remaining candidates in the presidential race have pledged to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement with the US quickly once in office, but it could be several months yet before the victor of the two-stage election is determined other problems continue apace, and, consequently, look all the more difficult to resolve. With the annual so-called spring offensive of the Afghan Taliban under way, the ability of the Afghan national security forces both police and army to hold of f against the Taliban in huge swathes of the country is again under scrutiny. A report by the International Crisis Group has poured predictable fuel on the fire by highlighting the growing security woes in areas where the central government`s presence and reach is less visible and effective. As ever, the view of Afghanistan is either the glass half full relatively normality in the cities and areas where Kabul`s presence is ef fective or half empty deteriorating security, without quite a Taliban takeover, in areas where Kabul`s reach is questionable or a non-issue.

Nevertheless, there is littledisagreement about the most desirable way ahead: stepped-up reconciliation with the Afghan Taliban, closer cooperation between the Afghan and Pakistani states on cross-border movement of militants and an Afghan government that improves governance and service delivery enough to win the support of the people in the battle against Taliban propaganda. The problem is that reconciliation appears all but stalled, a result perhaps of the now-lame duck President Hamid Karzai trying to micromanage the process instead of letting the High Peace Council stay in charge.

Will it now even be possible to restart, or rejuvenate, the reconciliation process before the end of the year, given the Taliban will have little incentive to do so in the middle of foreign troops exiting, with the new Afghan government taking time to settle in? The hope and in Afghanistan so much always seems to rest on hope is that the incoming administration and regional and international players are thinking ahead about what needs to be done on the reconciliation front. But such advanced forethought has not exactly been a hallmark of any side`s Afghan policy so far.