LAST week, the US announced a historic $500 million investment in Pakistan`s critical minerals sector. The development came in parallel with the emergency assistance Washington extended to Pakistan on account of the devastating floods a gesture that surprised many at a time when the US has been scaling back its humanitarian commitments elsewhere. The aid package revived memories of previous moments of warm Pak-US ties from the Afghan Soviet war years to the post-9/11 era when Islamabad became a central partner in the US-led campaign against terrorism.

The recent moves suggest that the relationship, often tested by cycles of mistrust, will remain on track at least for the foreseeable future.

Yet, the larger question is whether Pakistan can shape these ties into something more sustainable. Economic convergence is one track, but the real test lies in whether Islamabad and Washington can forge overlapping geopolitical objectives that endure. History shows us that such alignments take decades to nurture and are even harder to sustain. Few countries understand this better than Pakistan, which has seen repeated crests and troughs in its bilateral engagement with the US. Today, India is beginning to face similar challenges in balancing its own expectations with Washington`s strategic calculus.

For Pakistan, internal strength is the most decisive factor in maintaining equilibrium with significant powers. An optimist may argue that such priorities are finally receiving attention in Islamabad, though the evidence remains thin.

What is worth noting, however, is that despite its weak economy, battered global image, fragile security and dismal social indicators, Pakistan has managed to navigate a turbulent international order with surprising resilience. Much of this owes not to Islamabad`s own ingenuity but to external shocks: the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and the shifting uncertainties of American politics. Each has produced ripple effects that, in some ways, created diplomatic space for Pakistan, except Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently attempted to equate Israel`s attack on the Hamas in Qatar with America`s hunt for Osama bin Laden in Pakistan, a dangerous analogy, regardless of intent. For Pakistan,such comparisons strike at the image it despises most: being portrayed as a lame duck in its most critical relationships.

Perhaps Pakistan`s most tangible achievement was the careful management of the May standoff with India, a moment that could have derailed the fragile regionalbalance. India continues to recalibrate in the aftermath, underscoring that even limited but deft manoeuvres can provide Pakistan breathing room. Whether this space can be converted into a long-term advantage, however, will depend less on the generosity of great powers and more on Pakistan`s own capacity to build internal resilience and define clear, consistent objectives in a world where alliances remain fluid.

Many in China may not have read the symbolism well when Pakistan`s top brass, including the prime minister and army chief, together witnessed the signing of the $500m critical minerals deal with American firms. After all, Beijing has already invested nearly $30 billion in Pakistan through CPEC and other financial facilities. During his recent visit to China, the prime minister secured pledges worth another $8.5bn for the next CPEC phase.

Why then is Islamabad jubilant over a $500m investment, while appearing less enthusiastic about the far larger Chinese commitments? Analysts offer multiple readings. Some see it as a historic moment, reflecting a renewed tilt of Pakistan`s civil-military leadership towards the West, an interpretation that rests more on historical and social undercurrents. Others view it as a geopolitical recalibration, suggesting that Pakistan hopes such gestures will create equilibrium in regional power dynamics, particularly in relation to India.

While these arguments carry weight, the country`s leadership believes that the deal is primarily a success of the Special Investment Facilitation Council, which was created to attract foreign investment but that has faced criticism over its inward-looking initiatives. For the civil-military establishment, securing American capital is proof that Pakistan can still be seen as an attractive destination by global investors.

Yet this optimism must be tested against reality. To attract non-political and non-strategically binding investment, Pakistan must first over-come its deeply entrenched bureaucratic mindset, which primarily serves the interests of a narrow power elite. The second hurdle remains security, a factor that continues to weigh heavily on the calculations of prospective investors. Without addressing these internal impediments, the promise of foreign investment risks becoming another headline rather than a transformative shift.

For Chinese investors, security remains the foremost concern. Even during the recent highlevel meeting attended by Pakistan`s top brass, President Xi Jinping underscored the need to ensure the safety of Chinese nationals working in Pakistan. If American firms begin investing in the same sectors where China has long had strategic interests, controversy will almost certainly follow. Yet, from a security standpoint, Beijing may find some reassurance: US involvement could help Pakistan address challenges ranging from the Baloch insurgency to the religiously inspired militancy associated with groups like the TTP and IS-K.

Washington has already signalled the contours of its approach by sanctioning the Majeed Brigade of the BLA. Such measures will likely increase pressure on Balochinsurgents,but the broader outcome will also hinge on Afghanistan`s role. Here, China has been building momentum in its relationship with Kabul, while the US has taken a more punitive posture, especially after Moscow recognised the Afghan Taliban regime.

The Taliban, emboldened by shifting international dynamics, have even dropped the `interim` label from their official titles, posturing that they will not bow to external pressure. This mindset poses a direct danger to Pakistan, one thatfeedsintoitsinternalsecurity crises.

In this environment, US investments, following in China`s footsteps, acquire an added layer of significance. Pakistan`s power elites, long sensitive to external support, are acutely aware that both major powers now have stakes in addressing the country`s security vulnerabilities. Whether this overlap becomes a point of convergence or contention will largely determine the sustainability of Pakistan`s new economic diplomacy.

The writer is a secunty analyst.