THE April 17 by-election on a National Assembly seat (NA213) in Umerkot is expected to be a tough two-way contest between the ruling Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and the joint candidate of the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) and Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA), as the opposition alliance is ready to exploit the issue of canals project as well as corporate farming.The NA seat had fallen vacant after the death of the party`s veteran leader, Nawab Yousuf Talpur, who commanded respect across all strata of population in the desert region.

The PTI and GDA both have a considerable vote bank in the constituency. But, in the 2024 general elections, PTI-backed independent candidate Lal Chand Malhi stood third with 37,958 votes.

PPP`s Nawab Yousuf Talpur won the election by securing 179,188 votes followed by PML-N candidate Mir Amanullah Talpur (44,961) who was supported by GDA.

PTI`s Malhi is in the run again, but this time he enjoys support from the opposition alliance GDA as well as PMLN`s Amanullah Talpur, which may have an adverse impact onPPP`s margin of victory.

On the other hand, the PPP has chosen late Nawab`s widow, Saba Talpur, to carry on the family`s political legacy. However, it looksthe party is relying too much on sympathy vote, hence it appears to ignore the incumbency factor as well as visible change in voters` number, composition and level ofpolitical awareness, which can have significant impact on the poll results.

Electioneering in absentia PPP`s Saba Talpur is nowhere to be seen in the district during electioneering campaign.

She is not found on any poster, makes no speeches and holds no meetings on the pretext that she is observing her iddat. Her campaign is being run by her son, Sindh Assembly member Taimur Talpur, and other family members, including her young grandson Shahmeer Talpur.

Umerkot people have mixed reactions to this state of things.

Some respect Ms Talpur`s personal situation and believe she has right to continue the family`s political legacy, while others arenot happy with continuation of same old system.

Late Nawab`s family and the PPP have controlled Umerkot for decades. Late Nawab won six of the last seven elections and lost only once in 1997, when Pir Noor Muhammad Shah Jeelani of PML-N inflicted defeat on him.

This by-election may not be as easyfor the PPP as it used to be when Nawab Yousuf Talpur was alive. The late Nawab had a close rapport with his voters and he truly ruled their hearts but young Taimur lacks his father`s qualities.

The significant change in the number and composition of voters which has since taken place can also have visible impact on election. The number of registered voters has grown to 608,997, including 321,686 men and 287,311 women.

Since 2018, about 127,000 new voters have been registered and around 20,000 more votersjoined thelistsince 2024 general election, many of whom are young and refuse to follow traditional leaders blindly.

They are outspoken and do not hide their displeasure over state of affairs in the district.

The PPP is trying to win them over with jobs and promise of more jobs. Sindh Education Minister Sardar Shah is said to have given 60,000 jobs in the area, which has earned him support, especially with young voters.

The issues of government`sleasing out land in the district for corporate farming and ongoing agitation under the banner of Save Indus River Movement against construction of controversial canals on Indus River will certainly factor in the polls result as the movement, an alliance of opposition parties and nationalist groups, has thrown its weight behind Lal Chand Malhi, a PTIbacked independent candidate.

Malhi, who has garnered support of the Grand Democratic Alliance and some elements within the ruling PML-N, is accusing the PPP of selling land to outsiders in the name of development and blaming the ruling party for allowing the Punjab to build canals on the Indus.

In a letter to the ElectionCommission of Pakistan (ECP), Malhi has accused the provincial government of using public resources to help the PPP win polls. Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah has visited the area several times and Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) funds have been distributed lately to win over voters, he says.

He wondered how the ECP had accepted PPP candidate`s nomination papers even though she had not yet submitted her photo to the commission.

PPP still rules villages, minorities Umerkot`s population is mostly made up of farmers and labourers and their support for the PPP is almost always certain, partly because majority ofthem are under the influence of the landlords for whom they work.

About half of the district`s population belongs to scheduled castes and the PPP has long been portraying itself to be a protector of minorities by awarding tickets to the likes of Krishna Kolhi, Veerji Kolhi and Poonjo Bheel who belong to low-income grassroots families rather than the rich and elites.

One can also count Dr Khatumal Jiwan Meghwar among them, who is a PPP loyalist.

These pro-PPP leaders have a large vote bank in Kolhi, Bheel and Meghwar communities. There are others such as LalChandMalhi,Bhagwandas Bheel and Kirshan Sharma, who have been battlingagainst PPP.

Of them, only Malhi has an impressive vote bank thanks to support of Shah Mehmood Qureshi and Pir Pagara, who have large pockets of devotees across Thar.

Spiritual groups` sway over Thar voter The Ghousia Jamaat led by incarcerated PTIleader Shah Mehmood Qureshi, Hurs of Pir Pagara, Sarwari Jamaat of Pir of Hala and Jeelani Jamaat headed by Pir Ameer Ali Shah Jeelani have impressive following in the district and play a major role in local politics.

Mr Qureshi had twice contested elections in Umerkot but the fact that time in power with PTI government did not bringany benefits to the area alienated some of his followers and they were now supporting the PPP.

Though Jamiat Ulema-iIslam-Fazl and Jamaat-i-Islami are supporting Malhi, there is an uneasy alliance because Malhi has been vocal against religious extremism and `forcible conversion` of Hindu girls, which is in reality a perennial issue of love marriages.

Many conservative voters are unsure about voting him because of the foregoing factors as well as the allegation that he favoured his own community when he was in power.

Pir Umar Jan Sarhandi, who was nominated as suspect in the murder of Dr Shahnawaz Kunbhar, is also in the run, but he has little vote bank to haveany effect on the poll result.

Not everything is right in PPP The PPP is showcasing its development record and programmes like BISP and Lady Health Workers schemes to woo women voters, and is confident of its win but not everyone is happy within the party.

Some veteran party workers feel ignored and complain jobs and development schemes have been given away to the party leaders` relatives and favourites.

Though differences within the local leadership of the party have surfaced lately with the groups of late Nawab, MPA Qasim Siraj Soomro and Syeds pulling one another`s legs, Faryal Talpur manages to bring everyone on the same page before election as she did just two days ago.