LET us begin with some clichés: Afghanistan has always been the playground of global power rivalries. It will remain so. Pakistan and Afghanistan, at the intersection of South Asia, Central Asia and the Middle East, in China`s neighbourhood, are of great strategic importance in an increasingly multipolar world. Power is returning from the West to the East. And since the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, there is a resurgence of extremist groups and increased instability in our region.

The recent terrorist incident in Pahalgam, followed by a four-day skirmish between India and Pakistan and a subsequent ceasefire or what many call a `pause`has left the region on edge.

India`s unsubstantiated allegations against Pakistan for the Pahalgam attack seem at odds with the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) 2025, published by the Institute of Economics and Peace, which ranks Pakistan second, India fourteenth, and Afghanistan ninth among the countries most affected by terrorism.

In Pakistan, total deaths from terrorist attacks in 2024 increased by 45 per cent over 2023. Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) attacks escalated significantly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, accounting for 558 deaths in 482 attacks the second-highest number of attacks by any single group last year. Baloch insurgent groups, including the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), also continued attacks on our security forces, law enforcement agencies and civilians.

According to the GTI, Islamic State Khorasan Province (IS-K) has expanded into one of the most active jihadist groups worldwide. Their digital propaganda now spans multiple languages Pashto, Dari, Urdu, Arabic, Farsi, Uzbek, Tajik, Turkish, English, and recently, Russian mainly targeting youth across the region, posing threats to Iran, Turkiye, Russia, and the broader international community.

To secure their own strategic and economic interests, some countries of the region had adopted the pragmatic approach of limited engagement with the Taliban regime despite the Afghan policy of deliberate disempowerment of women and girls. Since January 2025, however, there has been some discrete and some overt warming up to the Kabul regime by its neighbours and by the great powers. On January 26, Iran`s Foreign Minister visited Kabul, the first such visit since the Taliban takeover. On March 30, Zalmay Khalilzad led thefirst high-powered American delegation to Kabul since 2021 officially, to secure a prisoner`s release, but speculations also point to Washington seeking a return to the Bagram air base. Turkiye recently terminated the mission of diplomats appointed by Afghanistan`s former government, potentially paving the way for the Taliban to appoint its own envoys. The UAE has been quietly increasing its presence in Afghanistan, while Qatar reportedly facilitated Khalilzad`s visit.

Pakistan, too, has escalated its diplomatic engagement with Afghanistan. Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar`s visit to Kabul on April 19, thefirst since February 2023, was preceded by the visit of Pakistan`s special envoy for Afghanistan. Pakistan appointed its ambassador to Kabul on May 30; Kabul reciprocated. Notably, this uptick in diplo-macy occurred after the Pakistan-India conflict and as a result of an informal China-PakistanAfghanistan trilateral meeting in Beijing, with China playing mediator.

The Taliban regime, however, still largely remains unre cognised, even though China, Uzbekistan, and the UAE already host Taliban ambassadors, and Russia has formally accepted a Taliban ambassador.

China`s role in the region also needs to be viewed within the context of the US strategic posturing at the recent Shangri-La Dialogue. The US defence secretary warned that `the threat China poses is real, and it could be imminent.

Underscoring the importance of the `Indo-Pacific` region for the Trump administration, he added that any attempt by China to reunify Taiwan with the mainland would result in `devastating consequences for the Indo-Pacific and the world`.

On May 31, at the Eurasian Forum near Moscow, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accusedNato of coining the term `Indo-Pacific` to drag India into their anti-China scheme. Most importantly, he said: `Four years after their ignominious retreat, Nato is once again seeking new points of entry into Afghanistan`.

Morerecently, on June 12, CentcomCommander Gen Michael Kurilla, in a US Congressional hearing, called Pakistan a `phenomenal partner` in counterterrorism and highlighted IS-K`s growing footprint in Pakistan. The TTP and the BLA found no mention in his statement.

We could perhaps attribute his remarks to a 2023 United Nations International Crime and Research Institute (UNICRI) report that urged the global community and the UN to proactively address evolving threats in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan.

Let us end by connecting the regional dots to the global ones. The broader geopolitical calculus is unmistakable: The US maintains influence in Eastern Europe via Ukraine to counter Russia, and in the Middle East through its soulmate, Israel. Israel is devouring Gaza and has now attacked Iran with impunity amid the deafening silence of its Muslim neighbours.

Now, it appears poised to regain a strategic foothold in Afghanistan to counter China. Alliances are solidifying, with the US leading one bloc and China with Russia leading the other, mainly comprising the Global South. Weapons are being tested in South Asia and Europe.

So, does this mark the end of `the real pause` in the Great Game? Should world powers seek alternative models of engagement rather than reigniting their Great Game in Afghanistan and the region before it is too late for the sake of humanity, perhaps? For the US and Europe, geographically removed from the Middle East and South Asia, even from Ukraine, the wars play out like serialised tragedies on TV screens. Why should they be pushed to rethink? During the World Wars, it was our people who were used as fodder. Now, again, it is us on the frontlines. It is for us as a region to pause and rethink.

PS: The British Indian Army formed 80 per cent of its forces in World War II. Some 24,338 Indians were killed, 64,354 were wounded, 11,754 went missing, and 79,489 were taken prisoner, according to Crossed Swords by Shuja Nawaz. • The writer is a former ambassador.