THE spinning sector is once again warning that it is on the verge of a shutdown. Its representative, the All Pakistan Textile Mills Association, says that the spinning sector is prepared to shut down its factories given the continuous increases in production costs, and the impending gas-load management plan that is set to shut off gas to industry in Punjab in order to divert supplies to domestic consumers.

The warning comes at a time when Pakistan`s exports are already on a downward path, with no uptick in sight. The problem is that nobody can figure out how to resolve it. Gas supplies are dwindling, and SNGPL supplies are inadequate to meet the requirement of domestic consumers in the freezing winter months. Resultantly, arranging additional supplies of gas for industry is not feasible. The other items on the menu of complaints laid out by the textile industry tax issues, overvalued currency, import of cheap Indian yarn are too small to make a dent. Other emerging market economies, which are Pakistan`s competitors in the international arena, are using a mix of currency devaluation and tax rebates to breathe some life into their similarly moribund exports. But the larger problem is that Pakistan`s exports are stuck in a narrow band of cotton products, whereas preferences in market destinations are shifting quickly, further constraining room for growth in exports. Breathing life into industry using inflationary measures, or through diverting vital gas supplies from other equally deserving categories of consumers, or bargaining with the tax base, can be a temporary measure at best.

Efforts by government and industry representatives to sit down and evolve a path of consensus were tried a few months ago, without yielding any major breakthrough other than a regulatory duty on cotton imports. The matter is becoming serious, and the government needs to think a little outside the box to try and develop a response to a problem that is growing bigger with each passing year.