ALONG the Indus and National Highways, extending from Matiari to the northern regions of Sindh, travellers are greeted by the captivating sight of mustard flowers in full bloom. Amid this verdant backdrop, Sindh`s political parties are gearing up for the 12th general elections, scheduled for February 8, 2024.

In Pakistan`s second-most populous province, the electoral scene is set for a showdown among major political forces: the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P), Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-Fazl(JUI-F), Jamaat-i-Islami (JI), and the Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA), among others.

Given its historic dominance in the area,PPPis the one expected to perform strongly in constituencies in the agricultural belt of Sindh.

But outside of urban Sindh, the GDA has emerged as one of the only contenders who could potentially challenge the party`s complete dominance over the provincial assembly.

The Khairpur-based Pir Pagara-led GDA, established in 2017, is a coalition of several parties and influential figures united by a single goal: to upend the PPP`s dominance in Sindh.

The history of alliances formed to counter the PPP in Sindh dates back to the party`s founding by Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, be it the nine-party Pakistan National Alliance formed during his era, theIslami Jamhoori Ittehad (IJI) formed to counter Benazir Bhutto in the 1980s, the Sindh Democratic Alliance (SDA) in 2002 during Musharraf`s regime, or an unregistered ten-party alli-ance in 2013 and now the GDA.

The alliance expands In its second electoral outing, the GDA has broadened its coalition, allying itself with the JUI-F and incorporatingthe ultranationalist Sindh United Party (SUP) led by G.M. Syed`s grandson Syed Jalal Shah, into its fold. Ayaz Latif`s Qaumi Awami Tehreek is already part of the alliance, and it also collaborates with the PML-N and MQM from time to time, cognisant of the futility of unilateral efforts against the PPP.

Former Sindh CM Liaquat Jatoi joined the GDA after leaving PTI in the wake of the May 9 riots. Jatoi had served as CM in the PML-N government, formed after the 1997 elections, while Jalal was the deputy speaker of the Sindh Assembly in an MQM-led coalition. Jatoi parted ways with the party following the imposition of governor`s rule in Sindh after the assassination of Hakim Said.

Former CM Arbab Ghulam Rahim from Tharparkar and Mohammad Khan Junejo, son of the late Shahnawaz Junejo from Sanghar, are notable GDA members challenging the PPP`s stronghold. The alliance also includes former senator Dr Rahila Magsi from Tando Allahyar; and former bureaucrat Bashir Memon, appointed president of PML-N Sindh by Nawaz Sharif. Dr IbrahimJatoi from Shikarpur, meanwhile, has joined the JUI-F.

Sindh United Party (SUP) President Zain Shah acknowledges that their engagement with GDA is primarily an electoral strategy. `Nationalist parties don`t have a significant vote bank, and the alliance`s component parties have divergent ideologies that the SUP does not share, he admits.

PPP dominance Except for the 2002 elections held under Gen Musharraf, the PPP has consistently formed gov-ernments in Sindh.

In 2008, following Benazir Bhutto`s assassination in December 2007, the PPP won around 90 PA seats, enabling it toform a government in Sindh alongside its administrations at the Centre and a coalition government in Balochistan.

Since then, the PPP is the one that has formed governments in Sindh, winning 73 direct and 21 reserved seats (94 in total)in 2013, andin 2018 increasing its tally to 77 direct and 22 reserved seats, totalling 99.

But GDA Secretary General Dr Safdar Abbasi questions the transparency of the last polls in Sindh. `If the central elections were selective, do you think those in Sindh were transparent?`he asks, suggesting that the PPP`s dominance in Sindh mirrored the PTPs at the Centre. `The PPP`s strength mainly comes from 10-12 districts, which is where the GDA is focusing its efforts,` he notes, though he refrains from predicting the number of seats the GDA might win on February 8.Abbasi, a leader of PPPWorkers a breakaway faction of the PPP and husband of Nahid Khan, Benazir Bhutto`s onceconfidant, highlights hisnephew Moazzam Abbasi`s victory over PPP candidate Nid a Khuhro in the last election. He takes pride in the fact that the GDA was the first alliance to remain intact through a second general election.

GDA scorecard Content with the GDA`s performance in 2018, which won 11 direct seats in the Sindh Assembly and two in the National Assembly, Abbasi is optimistic about further progress. `We are gradually but surely breaking the system of corruption and bureaucracy entrenched for 15 years,` he asserts.

He supports the MQM`scall for devolution of powers to local governments and questions why the Sindh government has not formed a Provincial Finance Commission (PFC) in the last 15 years.

In the previous elections, the alliance narrowly lost four seats by margins as low as 3,000 to 900 votes. Dr Fehmida Mirza won a National Assembly constituency, but lost PS-73 to the PPP by just 915 votes. In Larkana, Adil Unnar was defeated by 2,000 votes on PS-13; in Ghotki, Ali Gohar Mahar won one seat but lost PS-19 by 3,000 votes; and Rozi Khan was defeated on PS-35 Naushahro Feroz by a similar margin. The GDA secured 45pc, 44.46pc, 41.99pc, and 36.44pc of the registered votes in these constituencies, respectively. Two of its MNAs, Ghous Bux Mahar (Shikarpur) and Dr Mirza (Badin),received 45.82pc and 46.94pc of the vote, respectively.

The GDA also performed well in other constituencies, securing substantial margins ranging from 39.48pc to 60.29pc in various districts.

However, the alliance suffered a setback prior to the election announcement when its MNA from Shikarpur Ghous Bux Mahar and MPA from Ghotki Ali Gohar Mahar defected to the PPP.

Now, the GDA aims to consolidate its position through seat adjustments with the JUI-F, MQM, and PML-N.

Recent delimitations have largely benefitted the PPP in Sindh, but placed it at a disadvantage in a few seats. For example, Sanghar, where it had won all three National Assembly seats, lost one seat due to redistricting. The PPP, however, was encouraged by the changes in Hyderabad`s Latifabadprovincial seat won in 2018 by Jabbar Khan, which now appear to favour him against the unified MQM.

Credible threat to PPP? The PPP, apparently accustomed to dealing with such alliances, remains focused on its national campaign. Party ChairmanBilawalBhuttoZardari constantly attacks the Sharifs in campaign speeches, but rarely mentions the GDA.

`PPP seems poised for an easy victory in the [Feb 8] polls,` suggests Prof Inam Shaikh, a Larkana-born intellectual. He notes that Sindh operates under a `Machiavellian model` of governance. According to Inam, the PPP excels in striking advantageous deals with the establishment, which prefers dealing with a single entity.

`For instance, if the establishment needs 40,000 acres for corporate farming, the PPP offers 80,000 acres,` he remarks, referencing the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) formed under the PPP-inclusive PDM government.

Inam observes that the PPPbypassesthearduous task of securing the popular vote by working through people at the Union Council (UC) level, a strategy differing from the late Bhutto`s approach. `UC representatives act as watchmen for ministers, advisers,and parliamentarians, ensuring the strength of the vote,` he explains.

With the district administration under control and ample funds available, he questions the necessity of worry for the PPP. However, he criticises the state of the public health sector, alleging corruption. Despite these issues, he believes the PPP will comfortably win in most constituencies.

Internal contradictions GDA`s collaboration with parties of varying ideologies, meanwhile, doesn`t go down well with rights activists like Amar Sindhu, a teacher at Sindh University and an organiser of the annual Ayaz Melo, who remains concerned over the inclusion of right-wingers like the JUI-F led by Rashid Soomro in Sindh in a bid to unify the anti-PPP vote, possibly with the establishment`s support.

She notes with surprise that Rashid`s father, the late Khalid Soomro, was known for both his reli-gious and nationalist views when it came to Sindh`s issues, but his son is now taking a different position.

`This strategy is alarming and contradicts Sindh`s political culture, she says. She agrees that while PPP may not excel in governance a subjective point in her view but issues such as the NFC Award and 18th Amendment are sufficient enough to sway voters who feel `protected` under the PPP.

Zulfikar Halepoto, who has worked with both the PPP and PTI, feels that `given the lack of a better alternative to represent them at both federal andprovinciallevels, Sindhis view PPP as lesser evil when compare with other political options`. And that`s why, he agrees with Inam on the PPP`s prospects in polls.

`Asif Zardari takes a no-risk approach and makes adjustments to include everyone. In Sindh, there simply isn`t a viable alternative,` he explains. This, he believes, is why opposition figures like the Mahars have once again returned to the PPP fold.

Campaign trail While the party has lofty ideals, they are still trailing the PPP in one important respect electioneering.

At the time of going to print, the GDA had just issued a list ofticketholders after finalising seat adjustments with allies, in the hopes of a better electoral showing this time around.

The PPP, however, already has a head start, having dealt with the award of tickets long ago.Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari is now addressing multiple events nearly every day and his sister Aseefa is also in the field, while local party leaders have turned up the heat in their respective areas.

Mr Bhutto-Zardari has even unveiled the Awami Muashi Muahida, the clo sest thing to a manifesto the party has produced so far.

With time running out for launching a fullfledged campaign, will a rare second electoral outing be the charm for GDA to keep itself relevant in the political milieu? That question will only be answered come February 8.