ISLAMABAD, Nov 17: People are likely to face up to six hours of electricity loadshedding for more than a month from last week of December when gas load management measures for winter will coincide with annual canal closure and subsequent sharp reduction in the country`s power generation capacity.

A senior government official told Dawn that the Economic Coordination Committee of the cabinet would formally approve gas load management plan for winter at a meeting on Nov 27. The plan entails no or substantially reduced supply to industrial, commercial, power and transport sectors, particularly in Punjab, to spare maximum supply to residential users in peak months of winter.

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has already approved the plan.

Implementation of the plan will begin in the first week of December. It will keep on getting harsher and remain effective until the third week of February depending on severity of winter.

By the middle of December, provinces will start reducing water withdrawals from dams, leading to canal closure from Dec 25 when power shortage will intensify. Sources said Sindh would close down canals originating from Kotri Barrage on Dec 26 and those from Sukkur Barrage on Jan 6. Canals in Punjab will remain dry for annual maintenance between Dec 25 and Jan 31. As a result, hydropower generation will drastically fall to about 1,000MW for about 35 days.

Coupled with the canal closure, the production from Wapda`s thermal stations will remain static at about 1,500-2,000MW because of the rehabilitation programme.

Therefore maximum reliance will shift to independent power producers (IPPs). As a result, the cost of electricity will increase because of generation through expensive furnace oil and diesel.

While sufficient stocks of furnace oil are available in the country to meet the require-ment for power generation, the government will have to disburse more than Rs30 billion to the Pakistan State Oil, in addition to normal subsidy payments from the budget to keep private power plants running at full capacity.

The expenses are likely to exceed the allocation for tariff differential subsidy target set in the budget and agreed to with the International Monetary Fund, according to the official. He said the energy ministers Shahid Khagan Abbasi and Khwaja Mohammad Asif currently on a visit to the United States would hold meetings with power producers and fuel suppliers to discuss ways and means to keep the IPPs running during winter months and postpone their annual maintenance until March next year.

They will also talk to the finance ministry to ensure timely payments to the PSO to contain power shortage at a manageable level.

The canal closure, an annual feature for cleaning and maintenance of irrigation infrastructure, takes place in winter because wheat crop has minimal requirement for watering from Dec 25 to Feb 10. The Indus River System Authority (Irsa) will announce a schedule for canal closure during which water discharges from reservoirs and barrages will be brought down to 10,000-15,000 cusecs from the current level of about 95,000 cusecs. Though Irsa is always under pressure to discharge higher water quantities to increase power generation, it has to follow provincial instructions for water discharges in line with irrigation requirements for agriculture.

Under the proposed canal closure plan, Punjab`s Lower Jhelum Canal is expected to remain closed from Dec 26 to Jan 12 and Thall Canal from Jan 13 to 30. The canals from the head Tarimu will remain dry from Jan 10 to 27 and Sidhnai Canal from Jan 11 to 28. The canals from Punjnad will remain closed between January 5 and 22 and Taunsa from Dec 31 to Jan 17.