INDIA`S meteoric rise over the past decade has imbued its leadership with a confidence that, at times, borders on hubris. An average GDP growth rate of 6.7 per cent from 2014 to 2024 has propelled India`s nominal GDP to a projected $4.2 trillion by 2025, outpacing many global economies, including China`s 6pc growth over the same period. Strategic partnerships like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), a burgeoning tech sector, and a youthful population of 1.36 billion have fuelled ambitions of great-power status.

Yet, this self-assurance has led to diplomatic bristling, notably India`s irritation with US mediation in its recent ceasefire with Pakistan, which The Economist reported as a perceived slight to New Delhi`s sovereignty. More sobering was a recent aerial skirmish, detailed by the Financial Times, where China`s J-10 `Dragon` fighters outmatched India`s Western-supplied aircraft, exposing technological disparities.

A realistic comparison of India and China reveals a stark truth: despite rapid progress, India remains a smaller, less advanced, and regionally focused power, far from matching China`s economic scale, military might, and global influence.

Overconfidence risks strategic miscalculations unless tempered by pragmatism.

Economically, the chasm between the two Asian giants is undeniable.

China`s nominal GDP, estimated at $19.2tr in 2025, is 4.6 times India`s, while its $32.9tr GDP in purchasing power parity terms is 2.3 times larger than India`s $14.6tr. This gap reflects not just size but industrial dominance.

China accounts for 28.4pc of globalmanufacturing value added, cementing its role as the world`s factory, while India`s 3.3pc share underscores its industrial infancy.

In 2023, China`s exports reached $3.5tr, nearly five times India`s $0.78tr, embedding Beijing in global supply chains. India`s higher growth rate offers long-term potential, but its per capita income of $2,730 in 2023 less than a fifth of China`s $12,670 signals limited resources for transformative investment. China`s economic head start, built on decades of stateled industrialisation, keeps India trailing, despite New Delhi`s aspirations.

Development metrics further highlight the divide. China`s Human Development Index score of 0.788 ranks it 75th globally, in the `high` category, reflecting superior education, healthcare, and living standards.

India`s 0.644, ranking 134th in the `medium` category, is hampered by a poverty rate of approximately 40pc (below $6.85 per day) compared to China`s 17pc.

Infrastructure disparities are stark: China`s 42,000 km high-speed rail network (the world`s largest), contrasts with India`s zero operational kilometres, with projects like the MumbaiAhmedabad line still in development.

India`s youthful demographic, nearly matching China`s 1.43bn, promises future dividends, but without significant investment in skills and industry, this potential remains untapped.

China`s advanced infrastructure and higher living standards provide a stronger foundation for economic and military power.

Militarily, India`s ambitions collide with harsh realities. China`s 2023 defence budget of $0.29tr is 3.6 times India`s $81.4bn, funding a 730-ship navy, three aircraft carriers, andaround 200 J-36 stealth fighters.

Moreover, The J-10 `Dragon`s recent combat debut, as reported by the Financial Times, showcased China`s technological edge over India`s imported Sukhoi Su-30s and Rafales.

India`s military, ranked 4th globally by the Global Firepower Index with 1.46 million active personnel and nearly 160 nuclear warheads, is formidable but heavily reliant on foreign suppliers Russia, France, and the US for critical systems. Indigenous efforts like the Tejas fighter face production delays; meanwhile, only 26-30pc of India`s budget goes to modernisation, constrained by 50-60pc allocated to salaries and pensions (23.6pc for pensions in 2025-26, covering 3.4m retirees). China, with approximately 30-40pc on personnel and around 40pc on equipment, prioritises advanced platforms, widening the technological gap.

This technological lag is a critical vulnerability. China`s advancements in artificial intelligence, 5G, and hypersonic weapons, driven by firms like Huawei and state-backed research and development (R&D), position it as a global leader. And while India`s tech sector excels in information technology services, it lags in cutting-edge innovation, with defence R&D consuming less than 5pc of its budget.

The J-10 skirmish underscored this disparity, as China`s homegrown systems outperformed India`s imported arsenal.

India`s nuclear arsenal (160 warheads) is less than half of China`s (350), and its missile systems, like Agni and BrahMos, while capable, trail China`s hypersonic and satellite capabilities. Closing this gap requires India to boost domestic R&D and reduce reliance on foreign arms, a goal of initiatives like `Make in India`, but one hampered by budgetary constraints.

Globally, India`s frustration with US intervention in the Pakistan ceasefire, as The Economist noted, reflects a desire for strategic autonomy. Yet, its influence remains regional, focused on countering Pakistan and China in the Indian Ocean. China, a United Nations (UN) Security Council permanent member, shapes global norms through the Belt and Road Initiative and institutions like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. India`s contributions to UN peacekeeping and its Quad role enhance its stature, but it lacks the economic and military clout to rival China`s agenda-setting power.

The ceasefire episode reveals India`s sensitivity to external influence and its limited global leverage, which necessitates partnerships with powers like the US, even if they chafe national pride.

India`s leadership, buoyed by a decade of progress, risks overestimat-ing its capabilities. The 6.7pc growth rate and strategic partnerships have fuelled aspirations, but hubris clouds judgement when confronting China`s superior scale and technology. The Pakistan ceasefire irritation signals a desire for sovereignty, yet India`s military and technological limitations evident in the J-10 skirmish demand pragmatism.

India`s $81.4bn defence budget, strained by pensions, cannot match China`s $292bn, nor can its 3.3pc global manufacturing share rival China`s 28.4pc.

Globally, India`s regional focus contrasts with China`s expansive influence.

As it stands, India`s economy, military, and global influence are dwarfed by China`s, and incidents like the J-10 skirmish and US mediation underscore its vulnerabilities. Rapid growth is a foundation, not a guarantee, of power.

In China`s shadow, India must play a long game, leveraging its potential while acknowledging its limits.m The writer is the former head of Citigroup`s emerging markets investments and author of `The Gathering Storm`