ONE element of Pakistan`s fast-evolving political landscape was explained rather well by a sullen-faced and resigned Shahid Khagan Abbasi when he was asl(ed about the ouster of the PML-N government in Balochistan.

`I tried to meet our MPAs but they would not see me`, amid suggestions that some of them had been told by the agencies to change their loyalties, the prime minister told Capital TV`s Murtaza Solangi on his return from his failed mission to make a lastditch effort to save Sanaullah Zehri.

Mr Abbasi also said he was asking his interior minister to ascertain if such reports (of the agencies` role) were accurate. That was last week. In the latter half of this week, a PML-N meeting, chaired by Nawaz Sharif in Islamabad, also expressed shockatthefallingofitsgovernmentinBalochistan.

If the PML-N had its ear to the ground in Balochistan as it supposedly does in Punjab it would have known for long what was afoot. A consensus was apparently being forced by the security apparatus which saw some erstwhile tribal adversaries who`d earlier refused to even break bread with one another, exhibiting a newfound bonhomie.

Many Islamabad-/ Lahore-based analysts are crediting the change in the province to the handiwork of the man they see as the political taskmaster Asif Zardari but, those close to the ground say, if the former president at all had a role, it was no more than a cameo as the script and direction was someone else`s.

Asif Zardari may be a political magician, who defied all odds to last a full term in office, and undeniably has close relations with many movers and shakers of Balochistan`s tribal hierarchy, but even he lacks the power to hammer the sort of heads togetherthatjoined hands to oustZehri.

Now with Qudoos Bizenjo in the saddle, the key to the Senate elections is in the PML-N`s hands no more. Whether the ultimate aim of the architects of this move is to seek dissolution of the assembly or simply ensure that Nawaz Sharif`s party is denied the seven or so seats it was hoping to get, it is within their power.If you ask my honest opinion, Pd say there is way too much emphasis on the Senate elections by the PML-N than warranted, given how no legislation proposed by the party has been blocked in the upper house despite the governing party`s minority.

In the game to checkmate Nawaz Sharif, when his ouster does not seem to suffice, various moves are being made on the chessboard. Among them, the Quetta one was easily executed simply because of the stranglehold of the security apparatus on the mostly tribal chiefs-cum-MPAs.

Elsewhere, the task seems to be getting increas-ingly more challenging. Just look at the margin of votes that the PML-N and PTI polled in the Lahore by-election from where Begum Kulsum Nawaz was elected and the votes that went to the `spoilers`.

Where the spoilers` tally seemed to be more significant in Lahore, and Kulsum Nawaz`s victory was by a margin of some 14,000 votes, the more recent Chakwal by-election came the PML-N`s way with a margin of 30,000 votes.

One isn`t sure if in Chakwal the spoiler belonging to the TLYRA, said to be propped up by those seeking to keep Nawaz Sharif away from the corridors of power, actually caused more harm to the PML-N or eroded the votes that may have gone the PTPs way.

If more pieces of the jigsaw are put together, one can also see why opposition protests seemed to trouble the government much more in the past this week`s Lahore protest led by the PAT fearingthe star cast of Asif Zardari and Imran Khan besides host Tahirul Qadri seemed not to have had much of an impact.

Yes, the hosts and their allies may dismiss (and have dismissed) the relatively small crowd by saying the occasion was merely to register their protest rather than to demonstrate a numerical show of force. But the fact that the assembled crowd, presumably of political workers, lacked passion to a point that little justice was done to the memory of the Model Town victims can hardly be explained.

In fact, to a cynic like me, the whole exercise appeared less to put pressure on the government and more by the assembled leaders to prove whatever points they wanted to one another. When even the greater cause that they say they had could not bring the PTI and PPP leaders on stage at the same time, the less said the better about what may or may not have been achieved.

My friend of over three decades and among Islamabad`s most well-informed journalists and analysts Nusrat Javed has been saying for months that given the challenges before it, the PML-N would be well advised to go for fresh elections rather than wait for the Senate elections.

Given what can only be described as lack of enthusiasm for slogans against the PML-N in the numerically crucial Punjab province, the party would be well advised to go for immediate polls.

When the only cry that seems to gain traction and matter more than any other is `mujhe kipun nikala?` (why was I ousted?), there can be no better strategy than to call a slightly early snap election to catch the opponents unawares and even possibly knock the wind out of their sails.

The puritans can say what they like, but with his slogan, Nawaz Sharif has painted himself as a wronged individual, the underdog (this, despite having governments in Islamabad and Lahore) particularly before the people of Punjab who seemed to be responding to him. No better time to cash in on that sentiment than now.• The writer is a former editor of Dawn.

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