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Heading off star wars

2025-04-20
Space has become a congested, contested and competitive domain. Consequently, the increasing weaponisation of space threatens security at the global and regional levels. The non-existence of a legally binding instrument prohibiting space weaponisation makes it challenging for the international community to maintain space as a global commons based on all states` free use and access.

The discourse on space security, particularly space weaponisation, is multifaceted, multidimensional, multilayered and complex. This complexity in discourse is preventing the international community from reaching consensus on how to prevent an arms race in outer space.

The US and its allies advocate a `responsible behaviour` approach to be adopted by major space faring nations. This primarily means norms, practices, principles and guidelines independent of legally binding instruments suitable to prevent an arms race in space. On the other hand, China and Russia stress the need for a legally binding instrument on the Prevention of Arms Race in Outer Space (PAROS). These two approaches collide, and a singularity has not been reached.

Academics and experts from major space-faring nations have written a plethora of books and professional research papers on this subject. Some Pakistanis have also contributed to this discussion of high importance.

However, academic publications by Pakistani scholars on international platforms are rare.

Dr Ahmad Khan, a PhD scholar from National Defence University, has co-authored Sabre-Rattling in Space: A South Asian Perspective with Dr Eligar Sadeh, a systems engineer for Lockheed Martin Space Systems, who worked on Nasa (the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration) spacecraft and is the founder and president of Astroconsulting International in the US.

The book is a first-ever academic account of space security by a South Asian expert and an American scholar. It is a blend of `responsible behaviour` approaches to create norms, principles and guidelines for safe space operations and legally binding instruments in PAROS.

The book offers an overview of challenges to international space governance and how structural flaws help states to aggressively follow a path toward space weaponisation.

The book observes that the strategic distrust between US and China has prompted them to pursue offensive space capabilities that can impact safe space operations. More importantly, it offers details of the Indian space programme, including its military space ambitions, and provides information about Pakistan`s space objectives.

According to the book, India is rapidly establishing itself as a space power, managing around 63 satellites, of which 26 are for military use. In 2019,it demonstrated its growing technological capabilities by conducting an anti-satellite missile test and joining an elite group of just four nations with such capabilities.

The book provides useful insights into India`s space odyssey. It is commonly believed that India`s space programme is indigenous, but the book suggests otherwise. India`s space programme was not built in isolation but heavily relied on external support from the Soviet Union, the US, Germany and France. The recent easing of US export restrictions by relaxation of its domestic laws concerning the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) for Quad and Aukus partner states Japan, Australia and India to give exclusive access to expensive space launch vehicle technologies, systems and equipment is testament to the claims made by the authors of the book.

Historically, the US has played a key role in advancing India`s space capabilities, alongside support from the Soviet Union and later Russia. The worrisome development from the space programme was India`s diversion of space technology to covertly develop its Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) programme. With the help of Russian technology, India developed launch vehicles such as the GSLV,PSLV and SLV technologies that have since been adapted for military use. Today, India possesses a formidable missile arsenal, capable of delivering conventional and nuclear warheads.

Among these, the Agni-V ranges up to 8,000 kilometres, while the Agni-VI extends to 10,000-12,000 kilometres.

In an explosive development, India has now deployed the MIRVed Agni-V (Multiple Independently Target able Reentry Vehicle, ie the missile can carry multiple warheads, each capable of being independently targeted to different locations). Meanwhile, India`s Surya missile programme remains shrouded in secrecy.

Under US pressure, India has chosen not to disclose the full extent of its Sur ya ICBM project, to avoid alarming global powers such as the US, UK and France. Officially, India maintains that its missile programme is designed as a deterrent against regional threats such as China and Pakistan. However, its increasing range means that cities such as London, Paris and even New York could eventually fall within striking distance raising concerns in the West.

While India`s space programme was originally established for peaceful purposes, it has increasingly taken on military applications. In contrast, Pakistan`s space programme focuses on economic development and non-military objectives. Satellites such as PakTes-1A, PakSat-IR, PRSS-I, EO-I and PakSat-MM1 are being used for civilian purposes, and Pakistan presents itself as maintaining a peaceful approach to space technology.

The US and India see their growing technological partnership as a key strategy in countering China`sinfluence.

This collaboration extends beyond space to critical areas such as nuclear technology, artificial intelligence and emerging technologies. Under the Biden administration, India secured the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET) agreement, which grants it access to advanced US technology in fields such as AI, nanotechnology and biotechnology.

As part of this agreement, India is set to receive high-precision military drones and co-develop the NasaISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR), the world`s most expensive Earth observation satellite, scheduled for launch in June 2025 aboard an Indian rocket.

The book notes that Nasa once collaborated closely with Pakistan`s space agency, Suparco, during the Cold War. However, the US has placed Suparco on its `Entity List`, imposing sanctions and restricting its access to American technology. This has pushed Pakistan to rely more on China for space cooperation, though its progress remains slower than India`s.

The book concludes that a universally accepted arms control and disarmament treaty in space should be negotiated to prevent space from military conflicts.

The author`s emphasis in the book is that stalemate must end on PAROS through norms building or by adopting a legally binding instrument.

The reviewer is Associate Director Research at the Centre for International Strategic Studies, Islamabad. He can be reached at yasirhunzai1@ gmail.com