ISLAMABAD: Pakistan and Qatararein an advanced stage of discussions for the supply of at least four cargoes of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which could pass through the Strait of Hormuz within a couple of days.

Facing criticism over loadshedding even before the beginning of summer, the power division has already placed an order with the petroleum division to arrange around 400 million cubic feet per day (mmefd) of LNG for power generation, amid hopes for the opening of international supply routes.

LNG imports had stopped early last month after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz following US-Israel attacks on Iran, which, in retaliation, targeted fuel installations in neighbouring countries, includingQatar, SaudiArabia,the UAE and Kuwait, among others.

Qatar declared force majeure early last month on all its global LNG contracts, including thosewith Pakistan.

Urgent call Sources said in the middle of an electricity shortfall, the power division made an urgent call for support from all stakeholders for the purchase of LNG cargoes, as it came to know about the possibility of Pakistani-flagged ships passing through the Middle Eastern chokepoint.

Qatar`s LNG cargoes had earlier returned from the Hormuz chokepoint. While the exact number remains unknown, informed sources said at least 25-30 loaded cargoes of Qatar petroleum are believed to be stranded between processing stations and Hormuz.

Pakistan has requested Qatar, at the highest level, to provide at least four of these to Islamabad, for which it would also utilise its renewed diplomatic capital, if required.

While the technical teams of the two sides are currently engaged in materialising these cargoes, Prime Minister ShehbazSharif and Chief of Defence Forces Field Marshal Asim Munir have just concluded a whirlwind tour of Middle Eastern nations as part of diplomatic efforts to mediate between the US and Iran for lasting peace in the region.

A senior government official at the petroleum division told Dawn that smooth operations of international fuel supply routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, had to begin but the power division had sought more than 400mmefd of LNG to meet electricity demand in both K-Electric service areas and distribution companies (Discos).

Sources said the power shortfall would keep on increasing as temperatures rise in the days ahead, and it would be nearly impossible to stabilise the national grid without major power plants, particularly the LNG-based plants in Punjab, with a total generation capacity of around 6,000MW.

On top of that, the utilisation of high-speed diesel (HSD) and even furnace oil at current market prices could push fuel costs through the roof.

In that case, even one or two cargoes from the open spot market, the sources added, could be economically viable in the greater power mix.

`With the onset of the summer season, electricity demand has started to rise significantly across the country. In this regard, the availability of RLNG remains critical for ensuring optimal power generation and maintaining system stability,` the power division wrote to the petroleum division.

Reliance on HSD It highlighted that any shortfall in RLNG supply would necessitate increased reliance on expensive alternative fuels such as HSD.

`This would not only result in a substantialincreasein the overallcost of generation but would also lead to prolonged hours of load management, thereby increasing the fuel cost adjustment (FCA) burden on end consumers,` the power ministry explained.

All four mega LNG plants of the federal and Punjab governments, along with the medium-sized Nandipur plant, can use HSD as an alternative fuel the generation price difference is normally more than Rs25 per unit, which is estimated to be higher at present given volatile oil prices changing on a weekly basis.

These plants are also required forsystem stability for the evacuation of surplus power from the southern part of the country.

To ensure smooth system operations and avoid the aforementioned impacts, the power division has also provided a detailed weekly forecast of RLNG requirements segregated for solar and non-solar hours, along with average demand prepared for the National Grid Company (NGC) system.

`Furthermore, K-Electric has also conveyed its RLNG requirement for the KE system,` the power division said, formally requesting the petroleum division to manage and allocate the Qatar-contracted cargoes in a manner that ensures the availability of RLNG in line with the demand plan for both the NGC and KE systems, thereby supporting uninterrupted and cost-effective power generation.

Officials said the cost of HSD-based generation, which previously exceeded Rs45 per unit before the US-Israel strikes on Iran, might now have risen beyond Rs80 per unit.

However, it is also challenging at present to consider HSD for power generation due to both its high cost and its critical demand in transport and agriculture, especially with the crop harvest in its last leg. Summer peak demand typically rises beyond 28,000MW, compared to the current 19,000-20,000MW during peak hours and below 9,000MW in the daytime, partly due to greater dependence on solar power. While solar energy has helped reduce grid demand, many consumers shift back to the grid at sunset.