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Unusual benchmarks

2025-05-20
7 ``% HE IMF has slapped Pakistan with several `new` structural benchmarks some of them quite unusual A under its ongoing funding programme. These goals are mostly linked to regular government practices such as notification of electricity tariff rebasing, semi-annual gas rate adjustment, approval of budget, and inflation adjustment in unconditional cash transfers to the poor. These signify business as usual. The unusual benchmarks submission of legislation in parliament before end June to lift quantitative restrictions on the commercial import of used vehicles, making captive power levy permanent, and removing the cap on debt service surcharge on consumer power bills are meant to enhance transparency, and improve the standards of economic and financial governance. Additionally, the IMF has tightened a few select quantitative performance indicators for the current fiscal year such as the upward revision in the gross reserves target from $12.75bn to $13.9bn and downward adjustment in the net domestic assets ceiling from Rs15.8tr to Rs15tr. The floor on the new tax returns is also adjusted up from 450,000 to 850,000 filers. Pakistan has sharply outperformed these QPIs in the first half of the year and it will not be difficult for it to meet the `tightened` targets going forward.

Broadly, the `enhanced` programme targets are aimed at achieving policy priorities by advancing structural reforms to consolidate the government budget, end subsidies, support vulnerable segments, strengthen competition, raise productivity and competitiveness, and improve energy sector viability. A few of the new goals target preferential treatment for certain sectors such as the auto industry and gradually withdraw protection enjoyed by them starting FY27 to FY30. How such actions as allowing the import of used cars to increase competition in the auto industry will help move us closer to the broader goal of electrification of the transport sector to reduce carbon emissions is debatable though. That said, it must be acknowledged that Pakistan`s performance to stabilise the country`s moribund economy has been commendable so far. However, this stability remains fragile because it has been achieved by suppressing growth. As the Fund has commented in its report, continued implementation of the programme priorities is key to not just protecting Pakistan`s hard-won economic stability but also supporting sustainable growth going forward. Any slippage or digression may bring us back to the brink something that we can hardly afford.