AS the February 8 elections draw closer, an unsettling silence pervades much of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.

In contrast to the lively rallies and door-to-door canvassing albeit subdued and in some cases, long overdue witnessed in other parts of the country, these regions are grappling with the looming threat of militant groups, from religious outfits to separatist movements, that cast a long shadow over the democratic process.

Inside a hujra in Bajaur, a tribal district along the Afghan frontier, a provincial assembly candidate from Maulana Fazlur Rehman`s party huddles with villagers, his campaign promises hushed against the backdrop of fear.

Four armed men stand guard outside, a grim reminder of the violence that has already reared its head, ahead of the February 8 general elections.

Two candidates Qari Khairullah of the JUI-F and Syed Rahim Shah of the Mazlum Ulasi Tehreek recently fell victim to separate militant attacks in Bajaur.

These incidents serve as stark warnings, underscoring the dangers that lie beneath the surface of the emerging election campaign. Khairullahescaped a bomb attack on his car unharmed, whereas Shah was critically injured and his colleague killed, as unidentified gunmen opened fire on their car.

`We`re stifled by fear,` the JUI-F candidate tells us at the hujra, requesting anonymity for the sake of his safety.

His words resonate with those living under the constant threat of violence.

In late July, a suicide bombing at a JUI-F rally in Bajaur left over55 dead,andhundreds injured, intensifying the apprehension.

The attack was later claimed by the so-called militant group, Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K).

`The safety of our people is our major concern,` admits the candidate, desperation woven into his words. Whispers ofwithdrawals ripple through the district, with several of his party`s candidates opting out of the race in the face of relentless attacks.

In Tappi village, North Waziristan, a hotbed for militant attacks, Mohsin Dawar, f ormer MNA and head of the National Democratic Movement, narrowly escaped an attack during his election campaign on January 3. A week later, anotherindependent provincial assembly candidate from the same district, Malik Kaleemullah Dawar, was killed in an attack in the same village.

`Running the election campaign is challenging when militants are firing bullets and launching bomb attacks, lamented an NDM supporter in Tappi village. In August, threatening letters targeting Mohsin Dawar and leaders of a local tribal council, Utmanzai Qaumi Jirga, were circulated in North Waziristan.

Mounting security fears `While security threats may not be as severe as in the 2013 and 2018 elections, certain parties, especially the JUI-F and the ANP in KP, still face security threats from various militant groups,` highlighted Ihsanullah Tipu Mehsud of The Khorasan Diary, an Islamabadbased research platform monitoring militant groups.

Although the Tehreek-iTaliban Pakistan (TTP) and the IS-K remain significant threats,the emergence of lesser-known militant groups like the Tehreek-i-Jihad Pakistan (TJP) and the faction led by Hafiz Gul Bahadur adds further complexity to the security situation.

While the TTP claims that public places and political parties are no longer its target, security officials and experts advise caution, citing a strategy reminiscent of the Afghan Taliban.

`Commanders affiliated with the TTP and its splinter groups, such as Jamaat ul Ahrar (JuA), claim responsibility for such attacks,` said a Peshawar-based security official, pointing to instances like last January`s suicide bombing on a mosque in Peshawar, where TTP commanders claimed attacks instead of the main organisation.

Mehsud expresses concernsthat the TTP could target certain politicians due to their alleged cooperation with the government in the crackdown against them. He cited the example of a TTP attack on PML-N KP provincial chief Amir Maqam in the Martung area of Shangla in June. Mr Muqam fortunately remained unhurt.

Mehsud also notes that many attacks on election campaigns, such as the recent ones in North Waziristan, may go unclaimed by any group because militant entities often skip claiming responsibility toavoid a public backlash.

But he maintains that the IS-K has emerged as a significant threat to political parties in general, drawing from the transnational militant outfit`s global anti-democracy ideology.

`It poses severe threats to the JUI-F because of the party`s close links with the [Afghan] Taliban administration in the ongoing Afghanistan situation,` he added, referring to how the group remains one of the Kabul regime`s biggest opponents in the country.

Baloch separatist threat In Balochistan, political parties in the Makran region are proceeding even more cautiously in their election campaigns, mindful of the enduring separatist insurgency.

On Jan 10, Aslam Buledi, a PML-N candidate contesting the National Assembly constituency, comprising Turbat and Panjgur, was critically injured in an attack in Turbat, though no group has claimed responsibility.

On Monday, Jan 15, unidentified attackers threw a grenade into a school during a training session being held for polling staff in Balochistan`s Kharan district.

Two days later, on Jan 17, Asghar Rind, the PPP`s candidate for Turbat`s provincial assembly seat, narrowly escaped agrenade attack onhis house in Turbat.

The next day, on January 18, district administrations in various Balochistan districts, including Kohlu, Dera Bugti, and Katchi, issued `security advisories` to candidates regarding potential attacks on political leader s.

During their election campaign in the Dasht area of Balochistan`s Kech district, the National Party`s provincialassembly candidate, Lala Rashid Dashti, along with Senator Akram Dashti, were attacked on Sunday evening in Dasht area, but remained unhurt.

Recent calls by the Allah Nazar-led Baloch Liberation Front (BLF) and Baloch RajiAajoi Sangar (BRAS), an alliance of major Baloch separatist groups, urging the Baloch people to boycott the elections, underline their stance that political participation harms the separatist cause.

A law enforcement official in Quetta, speaking on condition of anonymity, noted that the separatist groups` call for a boycott essentially serves as a threat to political parties participating in the electoral process.

In 2008, two major Baloch ethno-nationalist political parties, the Abdul Malik Balochled National Party (NP), and the Akhtar Mengal-led Balochistan National Party (BNP), boycotted the elections.

However, the NP has since borne the brunt of several attacks by the BLF due to its participation in electoral politics.

`Separatist groups vehemently oppose our party`s policy of seeking solutions through electoral politics, making our leaders prime targets,` said an NP leader from Turbat, again requesting anonymity due to se curity reasons.

The BLF was formed by disgruntled leaders of the BalochistanNationalMovement (subsequently renamed NP) and the Baloch Students Organisation associated with them.

Initially, NP workers faced criticism from the hardliner elements from BSO, renamed BSO-Azad and the BNM for the party`s political views favouring elections.

NP activists mentioned that after the BLF`s formation, the situation worsened when the group began targeting its leaders and members.

Kiyya Baloch, a journalist and analyst studying Balochistan`s insurgency, high-lighted that the killings of wellrespected NP political figures, such as Maula Bakhsh Dashti and Nasim Jangian, had led to a decrease in public support for the BLF. `This may be one reason why separate groups are avoiding targeting Baloch ethno-nationalist parties, he said.

He also pointed out that politicians and candidates perceived by separatist groups as collaborating with law enforcement agencies in the crackdown on them could be considered key targets.

Militant attacks in past elections Pakistan has grappled with a persistent issue of deadly attacks by militant groups during election cycles. The assassination of Benazir Bhutto in December 2007 set the stage for a turbulent 2008 election, which saw over 500 people killed or injured, primarily in attacks carried out by the terror outfit.

In the run-up to the 2013 polls, ANP topped the list of parties whose leaders and workers were terrorised by the TTP in KP and Karachi.

Additionally, terrorists also targeted the Qaumi Watan Party and the PPP.

The three-week campaign period leading up to the polls on May 11, 2013, was the bloodiest in Pakistan`s history.

According to a report by Critical Threats, a project of the American Enterprise Institute that compiles militant activity globally, 81 people were killed, and 437 were wounded in over 119 violent incidents between April 20, when campaigning officially began, and May 9, when a campaign blackout was instituted.

On the night of May 9, the son of former Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani was kidnapped by Al Qaeda-linked militants.

Despite the 2018 general elections being less violent than those in 2013, they continued a troubling trend with high-casualty attacks, particularly by the IS-K, a new player that had emerged in mid-2014.

On July 13, just two days before polling, over 140 people were killed during an election rally held by Nawabzada Siraj Raisani of the Balochistan Awami Party in Mastung, Balochistan. Raisani himself was a victim of the attack, which was claimed by the IS-K.

A detailed version of this article can be accessed on Dawn.com