AMID the heated debate on new canals, corporate farming and a mythical surplus of water, a meteorological drought alert issued by the Pakistan Meteorological Department is a matter of consternation.

Drought advisory-II stated that `drought conditions [are] emerging in parts of the country` was issued on Jan 21 by the PMD. The advisory revealed that from Sept 1, 2024, to Jan 15, 2025, Pakistan received,onaverage,40 percentlessrainfall than normal for the period.

Alarmingly, suboptimal rainfall was observed in Sindh (-52pc), Balochistan (-45pc), and Punjab (-42pc).

Meteorological drought is characterised by a spell of abnormally dry weather, which triggers a serious imbalance of water availability in any area. Thirteen districts in Sindh, 14 in Punjab and nine in Balochistan have been marked out for this situation.

Various updates of precipitation paint a grim scenario for water availability in the early Kharif season. Rainfall in December and January remained alarmingly below normal. Sindh and Punjab received 97pc and 89pc less rainfall than normal during this period. In the northern areas of GilgitBaltistan and Azad Kashmir, rainfall was, respectively, 38pc and 72pc less than usual. Water balance is evidently heading towards a disturbing cycle unless the weather takes a more positive turn in the next two months.

However, the prognosis by weather pundits suggests that the ongoing drought conditions are likely to be aggravated as no significant rainfall is expected in the coming weeks. The PMD ominously warned thatthesecondhalfofthisseason(January to March) will possibly become drier, which may exacerbate mild drought conditions to the level of moderate drought conditions. Some rain and snowfall were received upcountry in the latter half of February, but the drought risk has not been averted yet.

Winter snowfall is a major source of summer flows in the Indus and Jhelum catchments. So far, snowfall has been below the annual average. PMD data shows that from October to the first week of February, only 33 centimetres of snowfall was recorded against the OctoberMarch annual average of 126.2 cm. The snowfall pattern of the last two decades (2004-05 to 2024-25) shows that for 11 years, snowfall was below the annual average. A research paper authored by Simon Gascoin, Snowmelt and Snow Sublimation in the Indus Basin, published by the Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute, mentions that snowmelt in the upper Indus basin contributed 74pc of theannual run-off during 2001-2014. Other contributing factors included 23pc rainfall and 3pc snowmelt. Hence, declining snowfall and rainfall during these months will negatively affect water flows in the Indus river during the summer months.

Water stored in the Tarbela Dam is currently being used to grow Rabi crops.

Outflows from the dam remained 45,000 cusecs against an inflow of 13,000 cusecs in the third week of February. Due to this imbalance of inflows and outflows, Tarbela levels tumbled four metres in a week. If no significant rain is received in the catchment area, water shortage is expected in April when Sindh`s barrages need a flow of over 40,000 cusecs. Sindh`s water requirements will swell to over 77,000 cusecs in May. Snowmelt in the upper Indus helps to augment Tarbela`s water level. If the mountain areas do not receive a few healthy spells of snowfall in March and April, storage in Tarbela will experience stress after May. With winter delayed, snowmelt also lags. This can deprive Sindh of therequired amount of water for crop sowing in the early Kharif season.

Overall, water availability in the Indus and its tributaries have shown a declining trend during this century`s first quarter, withthe exception of the two floods of 2010 and 2022. Flow data shows that from the period 2000-01 to 2022-23, there were 10 dry years when less than 8.6 million acre feet of water were discharged below Kotri the minimum flow recommended by international experts. The average annual flow below Kotri Barrage has drastically declined from 40.69 maf during 1976-1998 to 14 maf during 1999-2022. These numbers also defy the frequently claimed quantum of surplus flows below Kotri Barrage to justify new reservoirs and canals in the Indus basin.

A World Bank report, Pakistan`s Water Economy: Running Dry, paints a grim picture,pointing out that due to rapid glacier retreat, the Indus basin is likely to endure a colossal decrease of 30pc to 40pc in its flows in the coming decades as glacial reservoirsbecome empty. Empiricalevidence demands more rational planning for the responsible use of the rapidly declining water flows. Rather than developing new command areas, it would be prudent to focus on increasing water productivity. • The wnter is a civil society professional.

nmemon2004@yahoo.com