UNSURPRISINGLY, a recent Pew survey says India stood out, alongside Kenya and Nigeria, as one of the few countries to hold a favourable view of Israel. This trio, Pew said, was an anomaly in a 24-nation study that spanned Western democracies and selected Asian and African nations, most of which expressed widespread disapproval of the Israeli state. Such surveys are almost always conducted in a language or a format that leans on the middle classes to provide what passes for national opinion almost always without consulting any segment of the masses.

The survey says the prevailing global sentiment was largely shaped by the Israeli military assault on Gaza. `India`s relatively positive perception of Israel is not merely a geopolitical fluke but rather the outcome of a deepening strategic and ideological alignment.` Israel, the survey says, has consistently stood by India in moments of crisis, most notably voicing unequivocal support for New Delhi in the recent war with Pakistan. Let`s also add that a good reason for the prevailing `Indian opinion` lies in the country`s notoriously self-regarding and increasingly communal middle classes.

An earlier Pew survey during George W.

Bush`s invasion of Iraq showed how the US president was put in the doghouse by almost the entire world, including the US, Europe, Asia and Africa. The exception was India. So, it`s not just about Israel, rather it may have much to do with a resurfacing of a colonial mentality, with the middle classes orphaned by the demise of the Soviet Union. Bush was never so lionised by anyone, and he naturally looked overwhelmed when his host in New Delhi, prime minister Manmohan Singh, who, with a wave of his wand, created the post-Cold War middle classes, told him how much Indians loved him. In a word, the phenomenon of courting Israel and the US is an aspect of the middle class`s newfound love of Hindu nationalism.

That nationalism, embodied in the worldview of Hindutva, would be facing a decisive moment soon; not at home, but on the international stage.

As it turns out, India will play host to the BRICS summit next year, for whose success it needsChina`s unalloyed support. Many BRICS members are wary of India`s aloofness from the group`s major interests. They also detect its excessive yearning to keep the US in good humour come what may. As luck would have it, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to be visiting China to attend the two-day 25th summit of the SCO, the increasingly powerful Shanghai club, which starts on Aug 31. Modi would be in a big quandary here, not least because Pakistan too would be there, as well as Iran. Words are going to be said about Israel as well as America, and Modi would be looking on helplessly. The thought of Pakistan and China in one group too would be a discomforting sight after the recent military stand-off in whichChina stood with Pakistan, and Israel with India.

BRICS is a close cousin of SCO, and its Brazil summit saw a resolution strongly condemning Israeli brutalities in Gaza plus the war on Iran, issues on which Modi has mostly offered a studied silence. The world knows his loyalty lies with Benjamin Netanyahu even as it pretends there`s scope for change. However, ever since Netanyahu made the mistake of taking on Iran frontally in a 12-day war, the wreck it left Israeli cities in should be troubling Modi personally and Hindutva generally, if not making them see the world more objectively.

Modi`s unceasing discomfort with the antiWest perspective at BRICS is one thing. At the Brazil summit, India`s preference to name Pakistan in the context of terrorism was also summarily ignored. The quandary was not eased by the fact that within the rival group too, Donald Trump chose to invite Pakistan`s armychief for lunch and so shortly after he led Islamabad`s challenge to Modi`s Operation Sindoor. The lunch was naturally seen as a snub to India, given that Operation Sindoor was launched against Pakistan with expectations of changing the facts on the ground. That didn`t happen. The world condemned the terror outrage in Pahalgam but kept studiously aloof during the 12-day war. Worse, Modi is already finding it difficult to convince his countrymen why India agreed to a ceasefire if, according to it, Trump did not bring it about. If the Indian objectives were not met in the war, why the ceasefire.

And if they had been met, why the unending interval? These are some of the questions Indians are beginning to ask. They also want to know the truth of Trump`s latest claim that India lost a bunch of aircraft in the short, swift air battle against Pakistan. The issue has been grudgingly billed for discussion in the Indian parliament.

Will Modi`s balancing act between China-led BRICS and the US-led G7 survive the escalating heat? Despite Trump`s insults, Modi`s voluble foreign minister is seen as speaking more for Washington, D.C., than for an independent country`s independent foreign policy. There could be compelling factors at play in the quagmire, not least the corruption cases slapped by US agencies on tycoon Gautam Adani, in whose plane Modi had arrived in Delhi to take the oath of office in 2014. Is Trump using it to coerce India? Is Modi taking India into a diplomatic trap to placate Trump? The fact is that Donald Trump`s America is misbehaving with everyone in the world and India is no exception. The pressure on Modi to stay in the Western camp is compounded by the fact that men and women considered members of his charmed circle are likeliest the ones who have made their millions or billions in US dollars. Imagine their plight with BRICS promising to challenge the dollar`s hegemony.

Yet, Modi has to make a success of the BRICS summit too, which he hosts next year, with China keeping a close watch on the script. • The writer is Dawn`s correspondent in Delhi.

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