WE have long had hybrid set-ups where civilians and non-civilians corule. But this is the first time many senior civilians openly admit and praise a clear illegality as the best system for us.

We have only had overt or hybrid autocracy so far, as no past set-up comes to mind that had even the two basic traits of a democracy together: fair polls and civilian sway. Yet, some oddly blame democracy for our ills and seek autocracy as the solution.

The level of hybridity can be mapped on two axes: poll rigging and the number of key areas run by non-civilians. The 2008 and 2013 set-ups were light hybrids: both were won fairly, and non-civilians mostly ran their core areas of interest, ie, foreign and security policy. But the post2024 situation is the worst since the Musharraf-PML-Q era as, prima facie, last year`s elections were won unfairly and even diplomacy, economy, politics and other areas are co-run now. Regimes that win unfairly try to hide that fact and do very well to offset their low legitimacy and win the next polls fairly. The PML-Q tried so and still lost in 2008.

Many say that the 2024 poll manipulation was too crude to hide. So, this set-up must do doubly well to win fairly in 2029.

However, it has been doing badly so far. It lays claims to an economic miracle that is more of a mirage. It has given economic stability (low inflation and a stable rupee) via debatable IMF tools high depreciation and interest rates that cut growth and jobs to cause public misery.

Despite low inflation, prices are much higher than they were in 2022, and low growth means that incomes did not rise enough. Agriculture is suffering given the low support prices. Growth is curbed by depleted dollar reserves despite low imports, record remittances and IMF and other loans. Reserves may fall rapidly to cause a new dollar crisis if growth and imports rise too fast, or in the event ofan externalshock.

The last two set-ups had ample reserves to ignite two years of fickle growth via large twin deficits before the polls, but were still unsure of winning the elections. As it can`t achieve even fickle growth, the current set-up`s electoral chances look grimmer despite Punjab`s frenzied `hand-outs politics` that reaches only a handful of voters.

Lasting growth is curbed by the lack of reforms in key areas (taxes, tariffs, state units, energy and bureaucracy), and more so by the lack of a dynamic vision for exports and industry among both parts of a vapid dispensation. Their petideas crypto, mining, farming and remittances ignore industry.

The set-up claims that it has achieved significant external wins, especially with regard to its relations with the US, the old, fickle patron of autocrats.

White House lunches and calls are shown as great feats. New US ties won`t match past high levels which, too, had ironically given the masses here more pain than gain. Ties with China and the Gulf states allow us to renew loans in order to survive, but not thrive. CPEC projects remain dormant and the Gulf billions are a pipe dream despite a big push by SIFC.

Outcomes on other axes are even worse given the sway of the stronger arm, which aims at foe and ally alike to nix PTI politically and bring the PPP and PML-N to heel, and thus lose public support. Political groups on the periphery face the st ate`s ire too. All this ignites mass anger. As seen during the Arab Spring, even a tiny event can lead towidespread mayhem. Institutionally, autonomous bodies stand tamed by the state and serve its aims openly while the media faces many curbs on its freedom. Insecurity in the tribal districtsand Balochistan is at a very high level, as witnessed in continuing militant activity. Meanwhile, large sections of the public in Gilgit-Baltistan, the Seraiki belt and Sindh have serious complaints against the state.

Thus, the wrong impression is created of economic, security and external wins.

In the process, the growing restrictions on freedoms is further weakening our social, political and institutional fabric.

Actually, civilians in the era of past light hybrids gave much better results.

Autocracy puts a nation on the edge of a precipice and can push us over. Despite its fake aura of invincibility, we may be one external shock away from economic doom, one terrorist act away from ruinous war and one spark away from mass protests. Only political legitimacy and civilian sway can avert doom. • The writer has a PhD degree from the University of California, Berkeley, in political economy and 25 years of grassroots to senior-level expen~ences across 50 countries.

murtazaniaz@yahoo.com X: @NiazMurtaza2