DUBAI / TEHRAN: Should Iran escalate the conflict through retaliation against US interests, or, as President Donald Trump has called on them to do, negotiate, which in practice means giving up all nuclear enrichment inside Iran? Iran has been exchanging fire with Israel for over 10 days now, but retaliating against the US brings a whole new level of risk,for the whole region.

Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at King`s College London, called the US action a `high-risk operation that delivers unpredictable outcomes`, given the facility was deep underground.

According to Krieg, Iran will seek a `calibrated response loud enough to resonate, but measured enough to contain`.

According to the BBC`s Frank Gardner, there are three different strategic courses of action now open to Iran.

None of them are risk free, and uppermost in the minds of those taking the decisions will be the survival of the Iranian regime.

Retaliate hard and soon Tehran is believed to retainabout half of its original stock of around 3,000 missiles, having used up and lost the remainder in exchanges with Israel. It also has a target list of around 20 US bases to choose from in the broader Middle East.

One of the nearest and most obvious is the sprawling headquarters of the powerful US Navy`s Fifth Fleet at Mina Salman in Bahrain.

But Iran may be reluctant to strike at a neighbouring Gulf Arab state. More likely, perhaps, would be to use its proxies in Iraq and Syria to attack any one of the relatively isolated US bases at At-Tanf, Ain Al-Asad or Erbil, Gardner wrote for BBC News.

Iran could also launch `swarm attacks` on US Navy warships using drones and fast torpedoboats,somethingthattheRevolutionary Guards Corps Navy has practiced exhaustively over the years.

There are also economic targets Iran could strike, but this would antagonise its Gulf Arab neighbours who have recently reached an uneasy modus vivendi with Tehran.

Michael A. Horowitz, a geopolitics and security analyst, said its options included attacking US assets, closing the Strait of Hormuz a vital conduit for the world oil trade or even attacking energy facilities in the Gulf, which hosts several US military bases.

Retaliate later This would mean waiting until the current tension has subsided and launching a surprise attack at a time of Iran`s choosing, when USbases were no longer on maximum alert.

Such an attack could also target US diplomatic, consular or trade missions, or extend to the assassination of individuals. The risk here for Iran, of course, is that it would likely invoke renewed US attacks just as ordinary Iranians are returning to normal life.

Hamidreza Ali, visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said Iran might even allow Trump a `symbolic win` and retaliate againstIsraelitargetsinstead.

`This keeps Washington out of the war while intensifying pressure on Tel Aviv. The risk of drawing the US further in would now rest on Trump`s next move,` he posted on X.

Don`t retaliate In Gardner`s view, this would take enormous restraint on Iran`s part but it would spare it from further US attacks. It could even choose the diplomatic route and re-join negotiations with the US, although Iran`s foreign minister pointed out that Iran never leftthose negotiations, that it was, in his words, Israel and the US that blew them up.

But restarting the US-Iran negotiations in Muscat, Rome or wherever, would only be worth doing if Iran was prepared to accept the red line that both the US and Israel are insisting on. Namely that for Iran to keep its civil nuclear programme, it must send all uranium outside the country for enrichment.

Doing nothing after taking such a battering also makes the Iranian regime look weak, especially after all its warnings of dire repercussions if the US did attack. In the end it may decide that the risk of weakening its grip on its population outweighs the cost of any further US attacks.

`If Trump continues to strike Iran without new provocation, it looks more like going to war on Israel`s behalf. That`s politically costly, given domestic opposition to war with Iran. Trump may have scored a tactical win, but if Iran plays this smart, they hand him a political grenade,` Hamidreza Aliwrote.AFP / Monitoring Desk