THE current state of India-Pakistan relations determines the possibilities for dialogue, sustaining such dialogue, and a positive outcome of dialogue.

The prospect on all three counts today is extremely bleak, since there is no apparent interest among the ruling elites of either country in dialogue for the resolution of the core issues. As the smaller country, Pakistan should have more interest in reducing tensions. However, in the aftermath of the four-day conflict, there is even lessinterestin dialogueinboth countries.

There is also little demand from opposition parties and public opinion in either country for dialogue. The question of immediate interest in both countries is whether a second round of hostilities is likely, and, if so, what outcomes may be anticipated. This is a horrendous state of affairs considering both countries are nuclear weapons powers that may or may not have the necessary control over the so-called escalation ladder, especially in a conflict that in a second round would expand beyond the border regions, and whose outcome may depend on unanticipated technological capabilities and battle strategies.

This alone should justify exploring all possibilities for productive dialogue. However, even among seasoned diplomats, the effort to rise above zero-sum exchanges is largely absent. This is because we have so completely internalised mutually exclusive and hostile narratives that the costs of continuing with the present unavailing situation seem far less than the political risks of seeking diplomatic breakthroughs.

In a recent interview of a former Pakistani foreign minister by a prominent Indian journalist, the questions asked more or less exclusively reflected India`s narrative, and the answers given more or less exclusively reflected Pakistan`s narrative. Audiences in both countries were apparently satisfied, although no serious attempt was made to explore possibilities for productive dialogue.

So where can the two countries go from here? I have attempted to address this in language that might elicit a measure of support from both sides.

This is a losing situation for both countries and for South Asia. The region faces enormous challenges, including avoiding the spectre of nuclear conflict; mitigating and overcoming the fatal consequences of irreversible climate change; the whole range of good governance, development,and human rights issues; transforming South Asia into a hub of global economic activity, etc.

Accordingly, the whole region has a critical stake in the transformation of India-Pakistan relations and the revival of Saarc from its moribund state.

All of this is possible but perceptions and possibilities will need to change. India sees Pakistan as a `structurally` failing state with which any longer-term engagement is more or less irrelevant. Pakistan sees India acting as a regional hegemon instead of a first among equals, and being frustrated by the strategic entry of China into South Asia as an effective counterforce to India, which China sees as a US proxy. Within this unpromising scenario, India and Pakistan, not without justification, see each other engaged in a range of mutually destabilising activities.

Accordingly, the challenge is to get political leaders, policymakers, policy advisers, the political intelligentsia, academics, journalists, teachers, `culture vultures` including artists, poets and humorists, etc, to create a national realisation of our shared survival stake and, accordingly, theneed to situate policies towards each other in that context on a priority basis. What are the chances of this happening? Close to zero at present because of the anti-people nature of their respective politics and their governing institutions. Unless, of course, the political intelligentsia of the two countries are intelligent and motivated enough to meet their national responsibilities and do something more than articulate admirable expressions of hope and goodwill.

There is a whole list of implemented, unimplemented, terminated and contemplated confidence-building measures that can be considered to initiate a process of normalisation. For such a process to be sustainable, however, it will be essential for both countries to take measures aimed at building a minimum of mutual trust to fuel the process of accommodation, compromise, and eventually, significant normalisation.

An exchange of visits by the prime ministers ofIndia and Pakistan should be considered with the purpose of building mutual trust, addressing each other`s concerns despite disagreements, and delineating measures to build a path towards realising the vast potential for mutually beneficial cooperation over a range of fields. All this could help develop influential trans-border constituencies for a sustainable normalisation process. Bureaucrats, diplomats and others can critically assist such a process, but they cannot or will not bring about real change on their own.

The Indians with justification see Pakistan`s military as institutionally unwilling to allow a lasting breakthrough in India-Pakistan relations, as the prevailing hostility facilitates its control of Pakistan`s politics. With equal justification, Pakistanis see the BJP and Modi`s electoral winning strategy of Hindutva, hostility to Pakistan, repression and refusal to negotiate on Kashmir, and threats to divert the Indus waters as equally insuperable obstacles to normalisation.

There are people of goodwill from all walks of life in India and Pakistan who wish to see the mutually debilitating hostility between India and Pakistan a thing of the past. But while many of them are highly respected, they do not add up to a political force that can bring about change.

What is required are political movements, not to bring about improved India-Pakistan relations as such, but for democratic, people-based governance and equitable development in both countries. This would help rationalise their national policies and eliminate blind spots in the India-Pakistan relationship which serve the interests of exploitative and obstructive elites in both countries.

Finally, an India-Pakistan normalisation process should in no way hinder the further deepening of Pakistan`s relations with China, which does not see itself as an enemy or rival of India as long as the latter does not ally itself with the US against China. Involving the US or the Gulf countries in India-Pakistan relations would be thoroughly counterproductive. • The wnter is a former ambassador to the US, India and China, and head of UN missions in Iraq and Sudan. The article is based on a note prepared for a zoom-based India-Pakistan citizens meeting hosted by O.P. Shah, chairman, Centre for Peace and Progress, New Delhi.

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