DOHA: A US naval blockade of Iranian ports is likely to squeeze Iran`s oil output in the coming weeks, but claims it will throw the country into economic free fall remain premature, analysts say.

After weeks of bombing and counter-strikes, focus has shifted to the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz.

In response to Iran`s blocl(ade of the strait since the start of the Middle East war, the US imposed a counterblockade ofIranian ports.

That bid, however, looks set to fail, at least in the short term.

`If the blockade lasts for more than two or three months, it can cause more damage` to Iran, said Saeed Laylaz, a professor at Shahid Beheshti University in Tehran.

`If Iran suffers any damage, the damage to countries in the southern Persian Gulf will definitely be greater,` he added. There`s a limit on how long Iran can bide its time, however.

Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management, said Iran `was expected to run out of storage capacity within approximately one month, but it may already be forced to shut part of its oil production within a couple of weeks`.

`Collapsing financially` Trump said this week that Iran was `collapsing financially` underthe blockade imposed by the US Navy on April 12, claiming that the country was `starving for cash`.

Jamie Ingram, managing editor of Middle East Economic Survey (MEES), said it was likely the timeline for Iran to hit its oil storage limits would be measured in `weeks rather than days` He added it was likely that `Iran will slightly reduce production before getting to the stage where storage constraints start to bite` According to analysis by oil expert Homayoun Falakshahi shared by energy intelligence firm Kpler, Iran`s crude production has already slowed.

Output fell by around 200,000 barrels per day last month to 3.68 million bpd and is expected to drop a further 420,000 bpd this month to about 3.43m bpd.

But Laylaz in Tehran said beyond the psychological effect of the blockade, the `real material effect has been small so far`.

Ingram said Kharg Island `shouldn`t be a particular bottleneck,` for Iran. `This is the final storage facility used before oil is exported and Iran can divert oil to other facilities rather than straight to Kharg,` he said.

`Mutually assured disruption` The MEES expert also said Iran`sdependency on oil exports via Hormuz had `deepened due to the damage caused by US strikes to other sections of its economy`.

`But Iran has also proven its ability to withstand huge oil-revenue declines during previous rounds of sanctions. I would not underestimate its resilience in this regard, he added.

As the initial two-week truce between Iran and the US was set to expire, Trump had said he would maintain the ceasefire to allow more time for peace talks.

`It will take a long time before such economic pain forces Iran to compromise,` Ingram said, explaining it is `more likely economic disruption pushes China into exerting more pressure on Iran to negotiate` Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, said `Iran`s economy was battered before the war, is contending with added strains caused during it, and now faces the combination of sanctions, seizures and potential strikes` `Iran`s leadership has previously shown a high threshold for pain even if the pressure on ordinary Iranians increases. It also likely calculates that its own efforts to subdue traffic through Hormuz act as a sort of mutually assured disruption,` he added.-AFPdependency on oil exports via Hormuz had `deepened due to the damage caused by US strikes to other sections of its economy`.

`But Iran has also proven its ability to withstand huge oil-revenue declines during previous rounds of sanctions. I would not underestimate its resilience in this regard, he added.

As the initial two-week truce between Iran and the US was set to expire, Trump had said he would maintain the ceasefire to allow more time for peace talks.

`It will take a long time before such economic pain forces Iran to compromise,` Ingram said, explaining it is `more likely economic disruption pushes China into exerting more pressure on Iran to negotiate` Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, said `Iran`s economy was battered before the war, is contending with added strains caused during it, and now faces the combination of sanctions, seizures and potential strikes` `Iran`s leadership has previously shown a high threshold for pain even if the pressure on ordinary Iranians increases. It also likely calculates that its own efforts to subdue traffic through Hormuz act as a sort of mutually assured disruption,` he added.-AFP