OVERSHADOWED by wars in our neighbourhood, the budget and the debate aroundit has been rather subdued. Despite this, among those who have been following the issue, disappointment has been expressed at the inability of a government to present a more reform-based or transformational budget despite all that is going its way.

The argument is that the government is now sitting pretty successful and confident after a win over India; best friends with the establishment; comfortable with an economy not in the middle of a meltdown or default, which also means the IMF is happier with it and also more settled domestically because the opposition is no longer much of a threat. After all, Imran Khan is in jail with few chances of being released, his party, with its compromised leadership, has been subdued, and the courts can no longer do anything. So, it is argued that the government is now in a position to take more politically difficult decisions aimed at reform rather than keep loading the gravy trains for special interest groups or the elite.

But truly, these high expectations are a case of hope triumphing over experience.

More seriously, this sense that the government no longer faces considerable political challenges is to miss the woods for the trees. Understandable, as we tend to focus on high politics in Pakistan and assume that if a political party in opposition is not effective on the street, in parliament and in the courts a government can breathe easy.

And especially if the establishment is `on the same page`.

Butif one looks beyond the surface, the problem remains: the voters and the support for the PTI, which stems from the anger and alienation of people. The latter may have been scared into silence, and the party they voted for made ineffective, but their sentiment hasn`t changed. So, unlike the rhetoric in public, in quiet moments, there is a realisation that it is only in the tempera-ture-controlled environs of television studios that the PTI is deemed irrelevant and the economy a success. Some even tell us how well the chief minister of Punjab is performing and how Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari (BBZ) is an upcoming leader.

However, these words are about as effective as the air-conditioning once one is forced to step outside. There is no escape from the heat as soon as one passes through the door. Similarly, there is no escape from the fact that an election at present would not yield a result any different from 2024. Or that the N League and PPP of today are closer to the PML-Q of the noughties when Gen Musharraf ruled the roost, rather than parties with genuine grassroots support as they once were.

And because of this, they are no in position to take politically difficult decisions, just as they could not in 2022 or 2018. Weak governments and their backers rarely ever stop worrying about the suppressed anger. Hence, they struggle to address this rather than the root causes of the anger by taking tough decisions. So, what we are left with is a regular budget, in which governments continue to spend money to `win` over voters as they did in the past: development funds to keep parliamentarians and electables in their corner, and high salaries for the bureaucracy, to ensure it will continue to do the government`s dirty work, and for judges, to discourage them for developing a moral conscience. Privatisation will be avoided, for example, because no one wants government servants on the roads; others may join in.

Any slightly controversial decision that risks a reaction from the powerful or special interest groups is rolled back. Last year, it was the announcement to make traders pay tax the finance minister mentioned it in more than one speech. This year, it seems as if it is not an issue any longer, for no one is discussing it; the focus this year is to make the rich not pay less tax than they should.In fact, recently, a newspaper reported that the government has now even relaxed the penalties it was planning to impose on non-filers something it has always harped on. Real estate has also gotten a pass, yet again. Salary hikes and pension reforms have been applied unevenly, because those that make or break governments have been and continue to be more equal than the others.

The PPP blew hot and cold about the budget and the sufferings of the people. Meetings were held and the two allies reached an agreement, which, among other things, ensured that the federal government will nearly double its allocation for universities in Sindh. But it was kind enough to let the government get away with promising that it will discuss the allocation for south Punjab with the PPP next year. BBZ mentioned this in his speech in parliament.

None of these are economic decisions, but more akin to the price paid to travel on roads infested by brigands. And other than making those allied with one happy, the government in each province is busy trying to shore itself up. Consider the claims of `tax-free budgets` by provincial governments. As if the people don`t realise that this happens because the federal government is busy taxing everything to pay for these tax-free exercises so that its vanity projects can be funded. In Punjab, for example, the government has announced a spate of projects named after the chief minister and her father. And, along with this, have come reports of new legislation that will protect the government`s decision to spend money on publicity campaigns.

Reform will have to wait for when people are onboard or all the players are onboard and willing to share the burden of the fallout. It is not enough to have silence through suppression for it leads to an uncomfortable sense of confidence and not confidence itself. • The writer is a joumalist.