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Trump`s new world

BY R A F I A Z A K A R I A 2025-01-25
IT has probably been the busiest week President Donald Trump has ever had, and it has the whole world worried. The Indians are worried about what the imminent slashing of H-1B visas and the elimination of birthright citizenship will have on their middle class, which exports tech talent to America. The Chinese are worried about the 10 per cent tariffs that Trump is promising to impose on them. Canada is worried about strident statements about how Canadian goods will face tariffs to bring down the trade deficit with them. Mexico is worried about the same thing, as well as Trump`s labelling the country as being `run by drug cartels` and the imminent deportation of millions of undocumented Mexicans from the United States.

The EU is worried about Trump`s statements regarding trade deficits, trade restrictions on European goods to match EU restrictions on US goods and Trump`s lack of enthusiasm for sustaining Nato or its defence promises. Denmark is worried about losing Greenland and Panama is worried about losing the Panama Canal; both of which Trump has announced the US would like to take over (without ruling out the use of military force).

It is undoubtedly going to be a new world under Donald Trump. First among all of this are likely to be the enormous changes that will come about to US immigration policy. Indians have good cause to be worried. Trump is not only promising to crack down on illegal immigration but also slowing down legal immigration to a trickle something which will likely impact Indians, as India sends the most immigrants and workers to America from Asia. Indian newspapers have been dominated by coverage of the issue over the past week.

Many commentators have even expressed alarm regarding the change in the rule regarding birthright citizenship. Constitutionally, any child born in the territorial US automatically gets American citizenship. However, an executive order signed by Trump this week wants to change this saying that it will not apply to children of those on non-immigrant visas (includingstudent visas and work visas) or children of undocumented workers. According to discussions in Indian newspapers, this would change the calculations of many in the Indian middle class who choose to avail these visas and then try to have children while they are in the US so that they will be American citizens. Trump`s order changing the grounds for citizenship has been challenged in US federal court, with a judge temporarily blocking the order. In the meantime, even if the rule is not immediately implemented, it likely augurs a period of uncertainty concerning the measure.

Those who are in the US illegally face a difficult time ahead as well. This is true regardless ofwhere they have immigrated from. This would include Pakistani citizens who are currently in the US. Immigration raids that are supposed to begin this weekend are likely to be used to round up people in areas with heavy immigrant populations. Those who may fit this category should know that they do not have to answer any questions if they are approached by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers if they are not near or at the US border. There is no duty to provide identification or documentation when approached in places that are not US border checkpoints unless there is probable cause that has led the agent to suspect that the person may be illegal.

Racial profiling of people is not an adequate basis for probable cause. Not offering up identification or answering questions is not in itself grounds for detaining any person who appears to be an immigrant. Those who run businesses thatemploy people who may be undocumented can ask ICE officers for a judicial warrant if their place of business is targeted for a raid. They can also instruct their employees to refuse to show identification or proof of legal residence unless such a warrant has been produced.

It is not just that the US is shutting its borders to the world and to American citizenship but also to products. In a speech telecast at the Davos summit, Trump announced that he will reduce the corporate tax rate from 40pc under Biden to 15pc if businesses choose to manufacture their product in the US.

Interest rates are also likely to be slashed under Trump which may provide Americans who listed inflation as one of their major reasons for dissatisfaction with the Biden administration with some hope. The focus on rejuvenating American manufacturing is geared to increasing job opportunities for Americans, particularly in the rust belt states that have experienced a downturn ever since manufacturing in the US begantobe outsourced.

The US is the richest and largest economy in the world. The Trump administration is seeking to harness this power to bully other countries out of territory and resources. Of course, the US has been doing this in places like the Middle East and South Asia since the beginning of this new millennium, but now it appears it is Western countries, like the EU states and others, who will face the brunt of American bullying. These countries were happy to look away from US overreach when it came to the `war on terror`, Iraq and Afghanistan. Now a new kind of US war has been launched, and its targets are countries who were spared in the last age of US power. It is these nations that are the targets of this new age of American overreach. They didn`t speak up when America did this to others and so the already bullied by America will have little to say now it is someone else`s turn. • The writer is an attomey teaching constitutional law and political philosophy.

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