A SMALL cotton producer, Arshad Khaskheli in Sanghar a hub of cotton production could not salvage his cotton on a four-acre plot. He, however, was able to get some produce 10 maunds by August from another two acres of land fed by a tubewell.

Mr Arshad attributed this loss of produce to water shortages that hit the early Kharif period. While his contention about the timely unavailability of water seems correct, the ever-shrinking acreage and production in Sindh specifically must be seen beyond the water-availability context. Though the arrival of cotton in ginning factories has already begun, fears abound that ongoing monsoon downpour spells may have negative implications on crops.

Cotton`s survival faces serious challenges that range from policymaking, reliance on imports and inadequate cotton pricing despite rising input costs to growers` increasing disinterest in cotton cultivation, unavailability of quality seeds, and weather issues driven by climate change.

This sector white gold that it is caters to multiple needs, such as providing animal feed, catering to around 20 per cent of domestic edible oil production, and engaging close to 80,000 female cotton pickers, thus helping them earn seasonally, so continued losses in the sector have materialised into direct economic losses in these areas.

Farmers, on the other hand, lament inadequate cotton prices, thus switching to alternative crops. For instance,Ghotki, which used to be known for cotton production, has recently seen strong inroads by sugarcane. With five sugar mills owned by influential sugar tycoons and sugarcane growers themselves, the district is now home to this high-delta crop.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif had announced Rs8,500 to facilitate cotton growers during his first term in 2023; however, 2025`s seasonal price is at a much lower Rs6,800 to Rs7,000 per 40kg of phutti as offered by ginners. The prices may fall even more inview of back-to-back rain spells, which affect the sensitive cotton.

Furthermore, the Export Facilitation Scheme (EFS) allows duty-free imports of cotton and yarn, whereas local cotton production is taxed to the extent of 18pc perhaps one of the leading causes of the shrinking of cotton acreage.

The industry is said to have imported cotton equivalent to domestic phutti production. Pakistan`s cotton import bill from July 24 to April 25 soared to $2.55 billion when compared with Rs1.19bn last year in the same period, as per State Bank figures. It was feared at the beginning of the currentfiscal year that cotton imports would hover around $1.9bn.

This is a strain on the country`s foreign exchange, considering Pakistan`s food import bill of $8.14bn in FY25, with palm oil having the largest import share ($3.4bn).

`I think we are in a total mess,` says Dr Yusuf Zafar, a scientist and former vice-president of the Pakistan Central Cotton Committee.

Alluding to the Economic Survey of Pakistan`s agriculture growth figure, he said that our farm sector hasrecorded a negative growth of 0.56pc in FY25 when compared with 6.25pc in FY24.

`We are groping in the dark while seeking the revival of cotton, which is losing ground in Sindh after Punjab,` Dr Zafar warned. According to him, Pakistan`s textile industry could not take textile exports to impressive levels even when Pakistan produced 14m bales. He pointed out that the textile industry believes it could be better off with the Bangladesh model, which imports 8m bales instead of growing them and earns $50bn through readymade garment exports.

Dr Zafar blamed inconsistent policy guidelines for the present predicament of 1.4m farmers.

`We don`t have the correct data,` he said, referencing cotton production figures of the Pakistan Cotton Ginner`s Association (PCGA) and the government as both remain at variance with Punjab`s Crop Reporting Service.

`We are losing cotton fast.

Sindh`s growers, with alternate choices, have already replaced cotton with some other crop, and those lacking this option are growing phutti under compulsion. The prevalent triple gene seed didn`t give the desired results, and lower yields are a serious issue,` contends Sindh Abadgar Board President Mahmood Nawaz Shah. He was disappointed to note that there has been no focus on seed development. The Sindh Seed Corporation, mandated to work on quality seed, he says, is a body that hardly meets the farm sector`s expectations.

Insofar as Sindh is concerned, cotton acreage continues to show a decline over the years. But in the ongoing season, a drastic drop in acreage of 35pc is seen against the target of 630,000hectares only 407,717 hectares were achieved in Sindh. In 2024, acreage stood at 550,116 hectares against the same target, showing a 12pc area loss. Even Sanghar reported 72,500 hectares sown against a target of 125,000 hectares the highest for any district in 2025.

Country-wide statistics of the PCGA as of August 18 put Pakistan-wide arrival of phutti from August 1-15 at 887,401 bales when compared with last year`s 1,075,028 bales in the corresponding period Sindh reported 517,851 bales against 682,292 bales in the corresponding month last year.

The PCGA data showed Pakistan last produced 14,871,174 a decade back in 2015. Since then, domestic production has nosedived, recording the lowest production of 5.5m bales in 2024-25.

Furthermore, PCGA`s cotton production figures for Punjab in the above August fortnight indicate 369,550 bales were produced against last year`s 392,736, which is less than what Sindh produced in 2024 and this year.

Sindh growers had lately started using triple gene seed. It, however, looks like achieving the 4.2m bales recorded in 2009-10 is still a distant dream for them.

Even this seed has not helped cotton regain its lost space.m