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Re-fixing the focus to adjust strategy

2026-10-25
A FEW weeks ago, India and China held the25thround oftalks on the disputed Himalayan frontier. The dialogue deserves a careful reading, not reflexive alarm.

What was actually agreed matters less than what it means for India`s posture, and what Pakistan does in response. The eight-point understanding is a process, not resolution. China`s territorial claims have not moved an inch. What has changed is the level of predictability.

For Pakistan, the easy read is the old one: China preoccupied with India is good for us. That is too simple, and it is the 1(ind of thinl(ing that becomes dangerous once it shapes policy. A permanently hostile China-India border is not cost-free for Pal(istan either. It raises the odds of another China-India clash, adds furthervolatility on our northern approaches, and complicates the Chinese connectivity ambitions the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) itself rides on. A steadier China-India relationship is not automatically bad news for us.

The military question worth asl(ing is not whether Indian troops will physically leave Ladal(h for our border. They will not; not in any meaningful way. The real variable is bandwidth: fewer high-altitude troop rotations, redirected surveillance and air assets, and diplomatic and military attention shifting west. That is a slow, technical shift, and the place to track it is Indian defence budget documents and force posture, not the wording of each round`s communique.

Geography mal(es this our concern either way. Eastern Ladal(h sits right at the junction of Chinese, Indian and Pal(istani strategic systems. A calmer China-India frontier lowers spillover risl(, which is good for our northern logistics. But that same calm could free up Indian attention elsewhere. Both things are true at once, pulling in opposite directions. But nothing suggests that Beijing is watering down its partnership with Islamabad to accommodate New Delhi.

Pakistan needs to do a few things, and none of them is new in 1(ind, just a little bit urgent now. These include a consultative channel with Beijing to tracl( the boundary process and what it means for us; quiet, senior-level reassurance instead of public appeals; and CPEC 2.0 delivering visible economic results so our value to China rests on performance rather than Indian hostility alone.

Besides, there should be deeper Central Asian connectivity through our ports; conventional and nuclear deterrence that stands on its own, not on the assumption that China will somehow keep India occupied indefinitely; and, finally, limited risk-reduction measures with India itself.

China and India are managing their rivalry. They are not resolving it. Our taskis to stay indispensable to China on our own merits, and to build an effective deterrence that depends on neither Beijing`s goodwill nor New Delhi`s distractions.

Lt-Col (retd) Syed Raziuddin Rawalpindi