HAVING urged a ceasefire in Gaza and then followed it with a decisive diplomatic push to clinch it, President Donald Trump`s ambivalent remarks about whether the truce will hold are troubling. In response to a question after assuming power, he said he wasn`t confident the ceasefire would last and asserted `It`s not our war. It is their war.` This stance is baffling for someone who claimed credit for the ceasefire after 15 months of war and said `all hell will break out` if hostages were not released before his inauguration. At the same time, Trump`s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff announced he would soon be travelling to the region to be part of `an inspection team` that would seek to ensure compliance with the ceasefire.

Mixed signals from the Trump administration on the fragile truce were further compounded by its action to revoke US sanctions on Israeli settlers in the West Bank. The sanctions were imposed by the Biden administration last year over violent settler attacks on Palestinian villagers. The executive order reversing the sanctions came at a time when settlers under the Israeli army`s protection were attacking Palestinians and setting fire to their properties.

Israel also escalated its assault on the West Bank with deadly raids on the Jenin refugee camp. According to UN officials, the camp, where 2,000 families were already forcibly displaced, had become `nearly uninhabitable` by continuing raids.

A day after sanctions were overturned, Israel launched an `extensive` military operation in the West Bank named Iron Wall, evidently emboldened by Washington`s move. Meanwhile, the Trump administration`s newly appointed envoy to the UN, Elise Stefanik, told her Congressional confirmation hearing that Israel has a `biblical right` to the occupied West Bank. Some Middle East experts interpreted Israel`s aggressive actions in the West Bank as a way of distracting from the Gaza ceasefire that was fiercely opposed by far-right members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu`s cabinet and serve as a sop to others who saw the truce as a governmentfailure. That view overlooks the fact that Israel`s onslaught of raids and drone strikes began before the ceasefire. Also, it is not just a diversionary tactic but reflects a strategic aim to ultimately annex the West Bank, for which Tel Aviv may now sense it could secure approval from Trump`s strongly pro-Israel administration. Several Trump picks for his administration, including Mike Huckabee, the next ambassador to Israel, have voiced support for Israel`s `claim` to the West Bank.

If Israel annexed the West Bank, it would rule out chances of establishing an independent Palestinian state and spell an end to the twostate solution, for which there is international consensus as also reflected in UN Security Council resolutions. Support for the two-state solution remains the formal position of the US.

Trump, however, has refrained from reaffirming it while Netanyahu has repeatedly rejected it.

Last week, UN Secretary General António Guterres issued a timely warning when he said at Davos that annexation would be a violation of international law.

Meanwhile in Gaza, where displaced Palestinians have begun to return to their destroyed homes, the full scale of the devastation is now becoming evident. More bodies have been discovered under the rubble of bombed buildings. The death toll of over 47,000 in 15 months of war is rising as these bodies are found.

Gaza lies in ruins with essential services in a state of collapse even as life has begun to slowly return to the Strip. Humanitarian assistance has poured in to meet urgent needs. But it will require a massive humanitarian and reconstruction effort and resources as well as permanent peace to rebuild Gaza.

So far, the ceasefire is holding, but formidable challenges lie ahead. The ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel envisages three phases. The first is to last for six weeks during which exchange of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners is to take place, which is underway. Israeli forces have to withdraw from population centres and humanitarian assistanceallowed into Gaza. Sixteen days into the first phase negotiations are to begin for the more challenging second phase. In this prisoner exchanges are to continue, Israeli troops have to fully withdraw from Gaza and a permanent end to the war agreed. The third phase involves Gaza`s reconstruction. Fears have been voiced about the ceasefire holding through the first phase as well as the ability of the two sides to conclude and abide by a permanent truce in the second.

US commitment to the ceasefire agreement and its involvement in the process will be essentialto ensureits fullimplementation. Washington after all is one the guarantors along with Qatar and Egypt. Unless there is sustained US pressure on Israel, the fate of the agreement will be uncertain. Trump`s post-inauguration remarks are not encouraging in this regard. As many analysts have pointed out, he seems more interested in extending the 2020 Abraham Accords the signature Middle East initiative of his first term which involved normalising relations between Arab states and Israel. Trump now has his sights set on bringing Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords. He told the media after his inauguration he was confident this would happen. Riyadh paused talks on this when war broke out in Gaza.

It subsequently made it clear that normalisation with Israel, who Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman accused of committing genocide, will only be possible once there is a credible pathway to the creation of a Palestinian state. Whether this is reason enough for Trump to address the Palestinian issue for which he has never shown any concern remains to be seen. But there cannot be durable stability in the Middle East withoutanindependentPalestinian state.

For now, peace in the Middle East hangs in the balance. Any Israeli attempt to annex even part of the West Bank will be a deal breaker. So can Israeli backtracking on the terms of the ceasefire agreement. That can even result in the resumption of war. • The writer is a former ambassador to the US, UK and UN.