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The great agricultural collapse

By Adnan A Syed 2025-04-28
In a country where over 60 per cent of the population relies directly or indirectly on agriculture, the failure to modernise this sector is not merely an oversight. It is a national emergency.

Each year, Pakistan`s fields yield millions of tonnes of food, yet tens of millions of Pakistanis remain foodinsecure. The problem is not with production; it`s with everything that happens after the harvest. According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS, 2023-24), total national crop production exceeds 143 million metric tonnes (MMT). Major crops like wheat (31.4 MMT), sugarcane (78.6 MMT), rice (9.9 MMT), and maize (11.6 MMT) alone account for over 131 MMT of this output.

Recently, the private sector has poured billions into agri-tech, aiming to boost yields through better seed, irrigation, and digital platforms. But without solving the post-harvest crisis, higher yields only mean bigger losses. The paradox is real: the more we grow, the more we lose.

Yet, the country`s government-owned storage capacity remains limited to just 3.5 MMT less than 3pc of total production. The rest of the burden falls on the private sector, which operates in a non-transparent, unregulated environment. In this setup, small farmers are left at the mercy of informal, unreliable storage options that add no value and often worsen losses.

Pakistan is losing over $1.3 billion (approximately Rs360bn) every year due to post-harvest losses, as reported by the Food and Agriculture Organisation and the Asian Development Bank. In the case of perishables, around 35-40pc of fruits and vegetables are wasted before they reach consumers in a usable form. Even essential staples like wheat suffer 10-15pc post-harvest losses, which amount to more than 2.5m tonnes of wasted grain annually.

Every year, farmers work day and night, knowing millions of rupees` worth of produce will go to waste.

They are forced to accept this loss as a routine part of survival, without recourse or reform.This waste contributes directly to urban food inflation and volatility. In 2023, food inflation crossed 40pc on multiple occasions. This is not just about price hikes; it`s a systemic failure that turns surplus into scarcity.

Pakistan`s agriculture is dominated by more than 8m smallholder farmers,most of whom own fewer than five acres. These farmers lack access to modern storage, logistics, and credit.

With no support system, they are forced to sell immediately after harvest, when prices are lowest, just to repay loans or buy inputs for the next season.

Financial institutions claim to offerrelief through credit, but that too has become a trap. With Karachi Interbank Offered Rate (Kibor) hovering above 20pc, loan costs are unmanageable.

What is advertised as a tool of empowerment ends up increasing farmer dependency and debt.

Since the 18th Amendment, agricul-ture has been devolved to the provinces, but no unified national framework exists for post-harvest management, storage, or value chain coordination. Provinces operate in silos, data isn`t shared, and programmes are duplicated or inconsistent.

Private sector players have launched isolated projects cold storages,digital agri-trade platforms, and input supply chains but they remain disconnected from each other and inaccessible to most smallholders.

Even well-intentioned initiatives are being misdirected or hijacked. Take the Electronic Warehouse Receipt system, recently launched as a formal post-harvest solution. Its aim was to allow farmers to store commodities securely and access bank credit. But in reality, it has become a tool exploited by large corporate entities, who now dominate warehouse space and financing. Small farmers are being pushed out, unable to meet requirements or compete with big players.

Pakistan`s policymakers have consistently failed to understand the root of the crisis. Instead of transforming the system from the ground up, they are trying to patch modern tools onto a broken, outdated foundation. The narrative is about innovation, but the reality is chaos.

Digital solutions, cold storages, and warehouse receipts are being launched without the necessary infrastructure, training, or regulation.Instead of solving problems, they`re creating new layers of exclusion.

This is why we urgently need a solution not just another pilot project or donor-funded experiment but a full-scale intervention designed to address what decades of policy have failed to fix.

One potentially viable solution would be an end-to-end, digitally connected agricultural system one that links every stage of the value chain, from pre-harvest monitoring to storage, financing, and trade, into a single, transparent, and scalable model.

If Pakistan wants to secure its food supply, stabilise rural economies, attract investment, and build a 21stcentury agri-sector, the time for patchwork solutions is over. We must move beyond yield and start focusing on systematic reforms, because unless we fix the chain, we`ll keep losing crops. • The author is an entrepreneur and the founder & chief executive officer of E-Agri.