IT IS becoming increasingly difficult to keep track of all that ails Pakistan. The year 2023 was essentially one where crises across the political, economic, and security domains coalesced in a way that few could have imagined. And while the nearand long-term implications of the gaps that have emerged in democratic order are yet to fully play out, the economic crisis has reached a point where even upper-class, urban citizens are beginning to feel the pinch.

Here are the key events that perhaps sum up the agony of 2023: Inflation that refuses to be tamed Pakistani media is wont to use the `mehengai ka toofan` tagline to grasp the attention of inattentive eyeballs, but 2023 was truly the year where inflation destroyed the last vestiges of buying power across households. The depreciating currency, rising energy prices and the secondand third-order effects on yet another ongoing IMF programme ensured that inflation continued to wreak havoc across large swathes of the economy.

All this happened while the central bank remained committed to its medium-term inflationary target, a testament to the institution`s delusions, and others also chimed in on the argument that the base effect would soon lead to lower inflation.

But this was not the case and consumer prices rose by nearly 30 per cent during the calendar year, according to the consumer price index published by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.

Those looking for a silver-lining can think of it this way: Pakistan ranked first in the subcontinent on inflation; Bangladesh came in second with 10 percent, while India finished dead last with a mere six per cent increase in its consumer price index during the same period.

Dar`s ill-fated staring contest with IMF As if the Sharifs` comeback wasn`t landmark enough, finance wizard Ishaq Dar`s return to the finance ministry was no less momentous.

While the dollar was initially scared of Mr Dar`s return to Islamabad, and he set in motion another attempt to maintain a peg for the rupee (leading others to make their own peg of choice to ease the pain), 2023 was the year in which Dar-onomics was well and truly defeated.

The IMF ultimately won the staring contest, but Mr Dar`s ghosts continue to haunt the corridors he once strode.

An obsession with a stronger rupee makes sense, given that it creates some space to control inflation, especially given the country`s energy import needs.

But such measures provide only short-term relief, as is evidenced from numerous points in our history.

So, will 2024 lead Pakistan`s policymakers to choose a different path? This remains to be seen, but given that the PML-N seems to be among the leading choices in the upcoming elections, another round of Mr Dar`s unique brand of economics cannot be ruled out.

SIFC: The solution for all ills? This past year also saw the red carpet being rolled out for the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC), which focused on everything from mining to agriculture. Pakistanis at home and abroad were beseeched to not lose hope by powerful individuals who vowed to make Pakistan a G20 economy by 2030. Roadshows were conducted and investments were sought through the council in a bid to turn around the economic prospects of the country.

In addition, big targets were set for growing exports, including a $100 billion IT export target.

But despite all the focus on the SIFC and billions that were coming in from the Gulf, Pakistan did manage to attract $2.1bn in foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in both 2022 and 2023, even without the fancy acronym. Perhaps the next year will promise more in FDI as the SIFC mechanism matures...

What comes next in 2024? While one should definitely steer clear of making predictions when it comes to Pakistan, it is clear is that three key risks will continue to cast a long shadow over its economy in the coming year: inflation, instability, and indecision.

With the country needing another IMF programme soon after the current one ends, the inflationary cycle is far from over. There are many who expect that this will not be the case, but the austerity-driven policies that the IMF will impose, and the additional pricing adjustments that a new programme will demand, it is highly likely that the upward trajectory of prices will continue in the near-term.

A detailed version of this article can be accessed on Dawn.com