THE broad contours of the regime`s vision for the future are reflected in the measures it has taken to discourage dissent against its elitist agenda of economic inequity and mediocrity regardless of the misery and insecurity it inflicts on the masses.

Af ter the February 2024 polls widely seen as rigged the first year saw the ruling set-up take measures that had not been seen in past civilian eras. These measures reduced civilian sway, weakened the judiciary and curbed free speech and dissent. It is now using these measures to impose a flawed economic plan that can undo progress. Rapid industrialisation must be our main aim, as we are behind even our regional peers in this aspect of the economy. Oddly, one hardly hears about export zones now, while the three economic areas most in the news remittances, corporate farming and mining may even impede industry, especially in view of inept governance.

Remittances help fill our large, perennial external deficits. But an overreliance on them vis-à-vis exports may lift the rupee to undercut our export viability abroad, reduce localjobs, and force more people to migrate in a vicious circle. Exports from corporate farming and mining may also lift the rupee and impede industrial exports. This will not send jobs abroad, but to less advanced, non-industrial sectors with poorer work conditions.

Corporate farming and mining may also harm our delicate ecological, provincial and ethnic balances, as the plucky resistance to them nationwide demonstrates. Corporate farming will hardly benefit the masses of Sindh and Punjab; it will only further enrich the elites. Mining may bring money to KP, Gilgit-Baltistan and Balochistan, but as in the past with such projects, the gains may elude the locals and only enhance local dissent. Many observe that a hard state could crush them merely for demanding equity.

Oddly, our rulers do not take strong action against extremists on the rampage against minority communities. Also, they could never quellpast ethnic dissent. So, unlike East Asian ones, our autocracies don`t usher in progress but economic mirages and human rights curbs. This reflects the incompetence of all the actors that lead them.

If the status quo invokes depression, the low chances of change enhance it. A new leadership doesn`t descend suddenly from the sky, but emerges from the struggles against the status quo by weak societalgroups. Powerful elements, the landed (PPP), the commercial (PML-N) and the middle-class (PTI) elite-led parties have failed. Unluckily, ne oliberal and religious groups are their strongest, but deeply flawed challengers. That only leaves progressive grassroots groups. Given our huge size, diversity and unlinked politics, most such past and new groups have been ethnic ones.

To analyse their ability to deliver an able regional and national leadership, one must focus on three axes: their roots among the masses regionally, linkages in strong national platforms, and policy agendas. On all three axes, they have come some distance but still have a long way to go. Only in in the former Fata areas and Balochistan the poorest, least populated and most conflict-hit regions do they have mass roots, as the BYC`s quick rise under a major non-dynastic woman activist shows.

Such groups can rise in other poor regions too; such as Sindh, after the fight over theCholistan canals. The links among new and older such groups are still weak. Finally, none of them have detailed agendas or capacities in the economy, security or foreign affairs. The new,most active ones are still issues-based, fighting state abuses such as abductions.

One must focus not on such groups` low chances of success but on the legitimacy of their causes. Many progressive groups globally ignored and overcame such low chances via determination, creativity and unity to bring about a new order.

The way forward is to raise their voice on national platforms, to pool scarce resources and develop policy agendas that emphasise devolved democracy and equitable economics based on the common themes arising from diverse regional problems. An inspiring agenda can help excite and organise masses locally to vote for new parties. This narrow, bumpy and risky path represents Pakistan`s only hope to avoid the local, regional and global threats to its viability in the coming decades, which the status quo will miserably fail to tackle. • The writer has a PhD degree from the University of California, Berkeley, in political economy, and 25 years of grassroots to senior-level experiences across 50 countnes.

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